MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS
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Working Paper The Effect of Social Security, Health, Demography and Technology on Retirement(2012) Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOSThis article studies the determinants of the labor force participation of elderly American males and investigates the factors that may account for the changes in retirement between 1950 and 2000. We develop a life-cycle general equilibrium model with endogenous retirement that embeds Social Security legislation and Medicare. Individuals are ex ante heterogeneous with respect to their preferences for leisure and face uncertainty about labor productivity, health status and out-of-pocket medical expenses. The model is calibrated to the U.S. economy in 2000 and is able to reproduce very closely the retirement behavior of the American population. It reproduces the peaks in the distribution of Social Security applications at ages 62 and 65 and the observed facts that low earners and unhealthy individuals retire earlier. It also matches very closely the increase in retirement from 1950 to 2000. Changes in Social Security policy - which became much more generous - and the introduction of Medicare account for most of the expansion of retirement. In contrast, the isolated impact of the increase in longevity was a delaying of retirement.Working Paper The effects of public sector employment on household savings and labor supply(2021) MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS; Bettoni, Luis G.In many countries the structure of wages and the labor law legislation are completely different for public and private sector employees. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to study the effect of such differences on household savings and labor supply. To conduct our analysis, first we use microdata from two Brazilian household surveys to document that civil servants save and work significantly less than their counterparts in the private sector. Second, we use matched employer-employee micro-data from Brazil (RAIS) to document differences between the two sectors in terms of wage and unemployment risk. Then, we calibrate the model to be consistent with micro and macro evidence for Brazil. Our counterfactual exercises show that differences in wages characteristics and labor law legislation accounts for nearly 70\% of the gap in savings between civil servants and private sector workers, and 57\% of the gap in labor supply. In addition, we find that eliminating those differences can produce sizeable increase on aggregate savings, employment and welfare.Working Paper Globalization and the Industrial Revolution(2011) Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; Pessoa, Samuel; MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOSThis paper argues that trade specialization played an indispensable role in sup porting the Industrial Revolution. We calibrate a two-good and two-sector overlapping generations model to Englandís historical development and investigate how much dif ferent Englandís development path would have been if it had not globalized in 1840. We show that the two-sectors closed economy model cannot explain the fall in the value of land relative to wages observed in the 19th century and that, absent globalization, the British economy would never have escaped its Malthusian trap.Working Paper Trade, structural transformation and growth in China(2013) Ferreira, Pedro Cavalcanti; MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS; Silva, Leonardo Fonseca daChina's recent performance in economic growth was characterized by high investment rate, increase in international trade, strong productivity growth in agriculture and nonfarm sectors and the reallocation of labor across sectors. We present a standard dynamic general equilibrium model of structural transformation for the Chinese economy to assess the contributions of the main drivers for the Chinese economic development. Our paper di§ers from other contributions to the literature by adding an external sector to the general equilibrium model of structural transformation. By doing that, we are able to estimate the contribution of trade to the economic development of China. We estimate that the contribution of trade to Chinaís economic growth was 26% of total economic growth during the period from 1980-2005. Moreover, the agricultural sector explained 27% of Chinese economic performance from 1980 to 2005.