O INSPER E ESTE REPOSITÓRIO NÃO DETÊM OS DIREITOS DE USO E REPRODUÇÃO DOS CONTEÚDOS AQUI REGISTRADOS. É RESPONSABILIDADE DO USUÁRIO VERIFICAR OS USOS PERMITIDOS NA FONTE ORIGINAL, RESPEITANDO-SE OS DIREITOS DE AUTOR OU EDITORAscari, GuidoBanomolo, PaoloHEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES2023-07-262023-07-262016https://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/5974The instability of macroeconomic variables is usually ruled out by rational expectations. We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to estimate possible temporary unstable paths. Our approach yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. The methodology allows the data to choose between diferent possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy and instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the '70s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When unstable RE paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the '70s. Thus, our methodology suggests that US inflation dynamics in the '70s is better described by unstable rational equilibrium paths.51 p.DigitalInglêsworking paperRational ExpectationsSunspotsInstabilityIndeterminacyInflationMonetary PolicyBEWP 226/2016