Navegando por Autor "Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz"

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Uma análise da não-linearidade da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil: Avesso a Inflação ou a Recessão?
(2009) Pagano, Terence de Almeida; Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz
O trabalho analisa se a função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil (BCB) apresenta características não-lineares e caracteriza o tipo de preferência do Banco Central no período de julho de 2000 a agosto de 2008, período este que contempla o regime de câmbio flutuante e o regime de metas de inflação adotados no país após 1999. Os resultados encontrados não rejeitam a hipótese de não-linearidade na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil. Além disso, os resultados indicam que a função de reação do BCB é côncava em relação à inflação esperada, o que dado uma estrutura econômica Novo-Keynesiana, é consistente com a existência de preferências avessas a recessão.
Hedge or Speculation? Evidence of the use of derivatives by Brazilian firms during the financial crisis
(2011) Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz
Identification of monetary policy shocks and its effects: FAVAR methodology for the Brazilian economy
(2010) Carvalho, Marina Delmondes de; Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz
This paper applies the factor-augmented vector autoregressive methodology (FAVAR) to analyze the impacy of monetary policy shocks on the Brazilian economy, using 125 monthly series for the period between January of 1995 and September of 2009. Overall, the results obtained were consistent with economic theory and no price puzzle is observed. The paper also compared the FAVAR with the VAR methodologies, concluding that the results were very similar under both methodologies and that the gain of using the FAVAR methodology is very limited when Brazilian data is used to study the effects of monetary shocks.
The Usefulness of factor models in forecasting the exchange rate: results from the Brazilian case
(2012) Felício, Wilson Rafael de Oliveira; Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz
This paper studies the usefulness of factors embedded on the common movements of exchange rates in forecasting the exchange rate Real/Dollar. The results show that considering the entire period of the sample from January 1999 to August 2011, no one model containing the factors is able to beat a random walk model. However, when the period directly following the adoption of the floating exchange rate regime is discarded, there is evidence that several models containing these factors beat the random walk. Lastly, the paper shows that the addition of factors improves the predictive power of the models comprising only macroeconomic variables commonly used in the literature to forecast the exchange rate.
The Usefulness of Financial Variables in Predicting Exchange Rate Movements
(2013) Rossi Junior, Jose Luiz
This paper studies the predictive power of several financial variables usually used as proxies for global liquidity, volatility, and risk aversion in forecasting exchange rates for a set of countries from January 2001 to April 2013. The results indicate that changes in the long-term interest rate, in the VIX, in the high yield spread, and in the market liquidity indicators have strong in-sample and out-of-sample predictive power with respect to exchange rates. The results indicate that the relationship between the financial variables and the exchange rate is relatively stable. The paper shows that the predictability of the models is persistent over time and does not depend on the choice of the window size adopted in the forecasting exercises.