Navegando por Autor "Guo, Yuming"

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All-cause, cardiovascular, and respiratory mortality and wildfire-related ozone: a multicountry two-stage time series analysis
(2024) Chen, Gongbo; Guo, Yuming; Yue, Xu; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Wenhua; Ye, Tingting; Tong, Shilu; Gasparrini, Antonio; Bell, Michelle L; Armstrong, Ben; Schwartz, Joel; Jaakkola , Jouni J K; Lavigne , Eric; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Kan, Haidong; Royé, Dominic; Urban, Aleš; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana Maria; Tobias, Aurelio; Forsberg, Bertil; Sera, Francesco; Lei, Yadong; Abramson, Michael J; Li, Shanshan
Ambient PM2.5 and productivity-adjusted life years lost in Brazil: a national population-based study
(2024) Wen, Bo; Ademi, Zanfina; Wu, Yao; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Ye, Tingting; Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan
Enormous health burden has been associated with air pollution and its effects continue to grow. However, the impact of air pollution on labour productivity at the population level is still unknown. This study assessed the association between premature death due to PM2.5 exposure and the loss of productivity-adjusted life years (PALYs), in Brazil. We applied a novel variant of the difference-in-difference (DID) approach to assess the association. Daily all-cause mortality data in Brazil were collected from 2000–2019. The PALYs lost increased by 5.11% (95% CI: 4.10–6.13%), for every 10 µg/m3 increase in the 2-day moving average of PM2.5. A total of 9,219,995 (95% CI: 7,491,634–10,921,141) PALYs lost and US$ 268.05 (95% CI: 217.82–317.50) billion economic costs were attributed to PM2.5 exposure, corresponding to 7.37% (95% CI: 5.99–8.73%) of the total PALYs lost due to premature death. This study also found that 5,005,306 PALYs could be avoided if the World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guideline (AQG) level was met. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that ambient PM2.5 exposure is associated with a considerable labour productivity burden relating to premature death in Brazil, while over half of the burden could be prevented if the WHO AQG was met. The findings highlight the need to reduce ambient PM2.5 levels and provide strong evidence for the development of strategies to mitigate the economic impacts of air pollution.
Comparison of weather station and climate reanalysis data for modelling temperature‑related mortality
(2022) Mistry, Malcolm N.; Schneider, Rochelle; Masselot, Pierre; Royé, Dominic; Armstrong, Ben; Kyselý, Jan; Orru, Hans; Sera, Francesco; ShiluTong1; Lavigne, Éric; Urban, Aleš; Madureira, Joana; García‑León, David; Ibarreta, Dolores; Ciscar, Juan‑Carlos; Feyen, Luc; Schrijver, Evan de; Coelho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Pascal, Mathilde; Tobias, Aurelio; Multi-Country Multi-City (MCC) Collaborative Research Network; Guo, Yuming; Vicedo‑Cabrera, Ana M.; Gasparrini, Antonio
Epidemiological analyses of health risks associated with non-optimal temperature are traditionally based on ground observations from weather stations that offer limited spatial and temporal coverage. Climate reanalysis represents an alternative option that provide complete spatio-temporal exposure coverage, and yet are to be systematically explored for their suitability in assessing temperature-related health risks at a global scale. Here we provide the first comprehensive analysis over multiple regions to assess the suitability of the most recent generation of reanalysis datasets for health impact assessments and evaluate their comparative performance against traditional station-based data. Our findings show that reanalysis temperature from the last ERA5 products generally compare well to station observations, with similar non-optimal temperature-related risk estimates. However, the analysis offers some indication of lower performance in tropical regions, with a likely underestimation of heat-related excess mortality. Reanalysis data represent a valid alternative source of exposure variables in epidemiological analyses of temperature-related risk.
Loss of life expectancy from PM2.5 in Brazil: A national study from 2010 to 2018
(2022) Yu, Pei; Xu, Rongbin; Li, Shanshan; Coelho, Micheline S. Z. S.; Saldiva, Paulo H. N.; Sim, Malcolm R.; Abramson, Michael J.; Guo, Yuming
Background Long-term exposure to PM2.5 is proved to be linked with mortality. However, limited studies have estimated the PM2.5 related loss of life expectancy (LLE) and its changing trends. How much life expectancy would be improved if PM2.5 pollution is reduced to the new WHO air quality guideline (AQG) level is unclear. Methods Data on deaths from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases were collected from 5,565 Brazilian municipalities during 2010–2018. A difference-in-differences approach with quasi-Poisson regression was applied to examine the PM2.5-years of life lost (YLL) associations and PM2.5 associated LLE. Results The annual PM2.5 concentration in each municipality from 2010 to 2018 was 7.7 µg/m3 in Brazil. Nationally, with each 10 μg/m3 increase in five-year-average (current and previous four years) concentrations of PM2.5, the relative risks (RRs) were 1.18 (95% CI: 1.15–1.21) for YLL from all-causes, 1.22 (1.16–1.28) from cancer, 1.12 (1.08–1.17) from cardiovascular and 1.17 (1.10–1.25) from respiratory diseases. Life expectancy could be improved by 1.09 (95% CI: 0.92–1.25) years by limiting PM2.5 concentration to the national lowest level (2.9 µg/m3), specifically, 0.20 (0.15–0.24) years for cancer, 0.16 (0.11–0.22) years for cardiovascular and 0.09 (0.05–0.13) years for respiratory diseases, with significant disparities across regions and municipalities. Life expectancy would be improved by 0.78 (0.66–0.90) years by setting the new WHO AQG PM2.5 concentration level of 5 μg/m3 as an acceptable threshold. Conclusions Using nationwide death records in Brazil, we found that long-term exposure to PM2.5 was associated with reduced life expectancy from all-causes, cancer, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases with regional inequalities and different trends. PM2.5 pollution abatement to below the WHO AQG level would improve this loss of life expectancy in Brazil.
Productivity-adjusted life years lost due to non-optimum temperatures in Brazil: A nationwide time-series study
(2023) Wen, Bo Wen; Ademi, Zanfina; Wu, Yao; Xu, Rongbin; Yu, Pei; Ye, Tingting; Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan
Non-optimal temperatures are associated with premature deaths globally. However, the evidence is limited in low- and middle-income countries, and the productivity losses due to non-optimal temperatures have not been quantified. We aimed to estimate the work-related impacts and economic losses attributable to non-optimal temperatures in Brazil. We collected daily mortality data from 510 immediate regions in Brazil during 2000 and 2019. A two-stage time-series analysis was applied to evaluate the association between non-optimum temperatures and the Productivity-Adjusted Life-Years (PALYs) lost. The temperature-PALYs association was fitted for each location in the first stage and then we applied meta-analyses to obtain the national estimations. The attributable fraction (AF) of PALY lost due to ambient temperatures and the corresponding economic costs were calculated for different subgroups of the working-age population. A total of 3,629,661 of PALYs lost were attributed to non-optimal temperatures during 2000–2019 in Brazil, corresponding to 2.90 % (95 % CI: 1.82 %, 3.95 %) of the total PALYs lost. Non-optimal temperatures have led to US$104.86 billion (95 % CI: 65.95, 142.70) of economic costs related to PALYs lost and the economic burden was more substantial in males and the population aged 15–44 years. Higher risks of extreme cold temperatures were observed in the South region in Brazil while extreme hot temperatures were observed in the Central West and Northeast regions. In conclusion, non-optimal temperatures are associated with considerable labour losses as well as economic costs in Brazil. Tailored policies and adaptation strategies should be proposed to mitigate the impacts of non-optimal temperatures on the labour supply in a changing climate.
Wildfire-related PM2.5 and cardiovascular mortality: A difference-in-differences analysis in Brazil
(2024) Gao, Yuan; Huang, Wenzhong; Yu, Pei; Xu, Rongbin; Gasevic, Danijela; Yue, Xu; Coêlho, Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan
Brazil has experienced unprecedented wildfires recently. We aimed to investigate the association of wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) with cause-specific cardiovascular mortality, and to estimate the attributable mortality burden. Exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was defined as exposure to annual mean wildfire-related PM2.5 concentrations in the 1-year prior to death. The variant difference-in-differences method was employed to explore the wildfire-related PM2.5-cardiovascular mortality association. We found that, in Brazil, compared with the population in the first quartile (Q1: ≤1.82 μg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure, those in the fourth quartile (Q4: 4.22–17.12 μg/m3) of wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure had a 2.2% (RR: 1.022, 95% CI: 1.013–1.032) higher risk for total cardiovascular mortality, 3.1% (RR: 1.031, 95% CI: 1.014–1.048) for ischaemic heart disease mortality, and 2.0% (RR: 1.020, 95% CI: 1.002–1.038) for stroke mortality. From 2010 to 2018, an estimation of 35,847 (95% CI: 22,424–49,177) cardiovascular deaths, representing 17.77 (95% CI: 11.12–24.38) per 100,000 population, were attributable to wildfire-related PM2.5 exposure. Targeted health promotion strategies should be developed for local governments to protect the public from the risk of wildfire-related cardiovascular premature deaths.
Wildfire-sourced fine particulate matter and preterm birth risks in Brazil: A nationwide population-based cohort study
(2024) Zhang, Yiwen; Huang, Wenzhong; Xu, Rongbin; Ye, Tingting; Chen, Gongbo; Yue, Xu; Coêl , Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Song, Jiangning; Guo, Yuming; Li, Shanshan
Wildfire-specific particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the key component of wildfire smoke, with potentially higher toxicity than PM2.5 from other sources. In this nationwide population-based cohort study, we included 22,163,195 births from Brazil during 2010–2019. Daily wildfire-specific PM2.5 was estimated through the chemical transport model. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize the exposure-time-response (E-T-R) relationship between weekly wildfire-specific PM2.5 exposure and preterm birth (PTB) risks, followed by subgroup analyses. A 10 µg/m3 increment in wildfire-specific PM2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.047 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.032–1.063) for PTB. Stronger associations between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and PTB were observed during earlier pregnancy, among female infants, and pregnant women < 18 years old, in ethnic minorities, with a length of education ≥ 11 years, from low-income or high temperature municipalities, and residing in North/Northeast regions. An estimated 1.47 % (95 % CI: 1.01 %–1.94 %) of PTBs were attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 in Brazil, increasing from 2010 to 2019. The PTBs attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 surpassed those attributed to non-wildfire PM2.5 (0.31 %, 95% CI: 0.09 %–0.57 %). Wildfire emerged as a critical source contributing to the PM2.5-linked PTBs. Prioritized fire management and emission control strategies are warranted for PTB prevention.

Navegando por Autor "Guo, Yuming"

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