PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO
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Artigo Científico Bayesian generalizations of the integer-valued autoregressive model(2022) HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Graziadei, HeltonArtigo Científico Prior Sensitivity Analysis in a Semi-Parametric Integer-Valued Time Series Model(2020) Graziadei, Helton; Lijoi, Antonio; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Prünster, IgorArtigo Científico Bayesian generalizations of the integer-valued autoregressive model(2020) PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Graziadei, Helton; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPESWe develop two Bayesian generalizations of the Poisson integer-valued autoregressive model. The AdINAR(1) model accounts for overdispersed data by means of an innovation process whose marginal distributions are finite mixtures, while the DP-INAR(1) model is a hierarchical extension involving a Dirichlet process, which is capable of modeling a latent pattern of heterogeneity in the distribution of the innovations rates. The probabilistic forecasting capabilities of both models are put to test in the analysis of crime data in Pittsburgh, with favorable results.