Coleção Insper Business and Economics Working Papers
URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/5740
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- Salience-Biased Nested Logit(2025) Caluz, Antonio Daniel; JOSÉ HELENO FARO; Sanches, Fabio MiessiThis paper introduces a two-level nested stochastic choice model in which nest probabilities are driven by salience. A category comprises alternatives that might be costly to gather information about, and we implicitly assume that market leaders are easier to familiarize oneself with. By learning about those alternatives more affordably, the items with the highest probability within each category become their respective saliences when selecting the category. Formally, a partition of the available options defines the collection of nests (categories), while a Luce function assigns weights to all alternatives. These two components represent the salience-biased nested logit (SBNL) model, which differs from the standard nested logit (NL) model primarily because the nest probabilities are determined solely by the highest probability within each category, which defines the corresponding salient alternative in our approach. Like the NL model, the Luce model is applicable within categories. While SBNL usually violates regularity, which leads to a form of market leader effect, we can develop a specific case of our model within the conventional random utility framework and demonstrate its broad applicability in practice under a standard parametric specification for utility. This results in a well-specified method for estimating the model’s parameters using individual or aggregate market data. It serves as an additional tool for analyzing market shares and clarifying how price elasticities may display different patterns according to marginal effects on demand stemming from variations in the prices of market share leaders (the salient ones) compared to price changes in non-leader alternatives.
- Inflation targeting did make a difference in industrial countries’ inflation and output growth(2012) Brito, Ricardo D.I reevaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting (IT) in industrial economies that adopted this regime in the early 1990s through dynamic panel regressions to show that IT had significant enhancing effects on realized inflation and GDP growth. I also refine the propensity score matching of Lin and Ye [2007. Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), 2521-2533] and Ball and Sheridan’s [2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke B, Woodford M (Eds), The inflation targeting debate, 249-276] cross-section regressions to show that their conclusion of IT irrelevance can be overturned. By analyzing other samples that extend theirs, I provide further evidence of the pioneering IT systems good performance among developed countries.
- Inflation targeting did make a difference in industrial countries’ inflation and output growth(2011) Brito, Ricardo D.I reevaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting (IT) in industrial economies that adopted this regime in the early 1990s through dynamic panel regressions to show that IT had significant enhancing effects on realized inflation and GDP growth. I also refine the propensity score matching of Lin and Ye [2007. Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), 2521-2533] and Ball and Sheridan’s [2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke B, Woodford M (Eds), The inflation targeting debate, 249-276] cross-section regressions to show that their conclusion of IT irrelevance can be overturned. By analyzing other samples that extend theirs, I provide further evidence of the pioneering IT systems good performance among developed countries.
- Permanent Excess Demand as Business Strategy: An analysis of the Brazilian higher-education market(2013) Andrade, Eduardo; Moita, Rodrigo; CARLOS EDUARDO LINS DA SILVAMany Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) establish tuition below the equilibrium price to generate permanent excess demand. This paper first builds on Becker’s (1991) theory to understand why the HEIs price in this way. The fact that students are both consumers and inputs on the education production function gives rise to an equilibrium where some firms have permanent excess demand. Second, the paper analyzes this equilibrium empirically. The results show that the HEIs give up 7.6% of the revenue coming from a freshman class in order to have better students and to differentiate themselves as high quality in the market.
- Elections that Inspire: Effects of Black Mayors on Educational Attainment(2024) Ikawa, Jorge; Martins, Clarice; Sant’Anna, Pedro C.; ROGERIO BIANCHI SANTARROSAWe study the impact of Black mayor’s election in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design on close elections, we find that Black students from municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to enroll in the National High School Examination, attend universities, and graduate. We find suggestive evidence that students’ aspirations play a role: secondary/tertiary education is not mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools.
- Gender and Top Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Ten New Facts from Brazil(2024) Martinez, Tomás R.; Martins Neto, Antonio; URSULA MATTIOLI MELLOThis paper presents ten new facts on gender and top lifetime earnings inequality in Brazil, drawing on rich administrative data covering nearly the entire formal labor market from 1985 to 2018. We document significant gender disparities in lifetime earn ings, particularly among top earners, where women are both underrepresented and face larger earnings gaps compared to men. We identify key drivers of this inequality, in cluding career interruptions, occupational segregation, employment in large firms, and job-switching patterns. Public sector employment partially mitigates these gaps.
- Assessing the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Poor Areas: The Case of Rural Pensions in Brazil(2024) Komatsu, Bruno Kawaoka; Dias, Lucas; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOIn Brazil, poor women in family agriculture are entitled to a monthly unconditional pension from the government when they turn 55, a large predictable income increase for rural families. In this paper, we use a national family expenditure survey and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design strategy to estimate the impacts of that pension on consumption, finance and labor market indicators. We show that the pension increases income by 50%, but does not change the consumption of non-durables or food insecurity. Loans repayments rise upon receipt of the pension, which implies that access to credit allowed consumption smoothing. We also find heterogeneity of responses by socioeconomic status, with women with lower education levels driving the result, while those with higher education levels increased their non-durable spending. These findings lend support to the standard life-cycle consumption model, even in very poor environments.
- I’ve Got You Covered: The Role of Spousal Information Sharing in Applying for Social Security Pensions in Rural Brazil(2024) Souza, Augusto Ranier de A.; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Komatsu, Bruno KawaokaIn this paper, we assess the mechanism of spousal information sharing about retirement benefits as a key factor determining access to social security among married Brazilian couples residing in rural areas. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we unveil a significant increase in the probability of an individual’s access to an age-related retirement benefit as a result of his/her partner gaining access to it, even in cases where the individual was previously already entitled to the benefit. We also show that the effect is stronger among low educated couples and that the hypothesis of retirement spillovers cannot account for this phenomenon.
- Revisiting the Facts of Economic Growth: insights from assessing misallocation over 70 years for up to 100 countries(2024) Martinez, Tomas R.; Santos, Thiago Trafane OliveiraAssessments of the role played by misallocation in shaping total factor productivity (TFP) have been hindered by constraints in the availability of firm-level data. This paper addresses this issue by developing a static Cournot model that primarily requires standard macroeconomic data to estimate market-power-driven misallocation. We apply this framework to decompose aggregate TFP into technology and allocative efficiency components from 1950 to 2019 for up to a hundred countries from the Penn World Table 10.01. Utilizing this decomposition, we revisit key facts of economic growth. On the one hand, we evaluate the world income frontier as proxied by the US, finding that changes in misallocation can significantly impact short-run growth. On the other hand, we examine the economic performance around the world. Misallocation enhances our understanding of cross-country income differences, even though a substantial unexplained portion persists. We also find a lack of convergence in allocative efficiency, suggesting market-power-driven misallocation is linked, in the long run, to long-lasting country-specific factors such as institutions.
- Índice Folha de Equilíbrio Racial Relatório Técnico 2022(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, AlyssonEste relatório apresenta os principais resultados referentes ao Índice de Equilíbrio Racial (IER), desenvolvido pelo Núcleo de Estudos Raciais do Insper em parceria com a Folha de São Paulo. O Índice avalia o equilíbrio da representação racial no Brasil tem três componentes: Renda, Educação e Longevidade, agregando essas três dimensões em um índice composto, o IER. A análise inclui os anos de 2001 até 2021, incluindo os níveis nacional, regional e estadual. Os resultados mostram grandes avanços na dimensão da Educação, uma certa estagnação na dimensão da Renda, e aumento das desigualdades raciais na dimensão Longevidade. O IER como um todo mostra avanço lento, sendo necessário mais de 100 anos para atingirmos o equilíbrio racial. Além do IER, também apresentamos resultados mais detalhados para educação, incluindo desequilíbrios raciais no Ensino Fundamental (EF) completo e incompleto e Ensino Médio completo. Também avaliamos o equilíbrio em relação a matriculas totais e nas series adequadas ao longo da infância e juventude. O atraso escolar já surge nos primeiros anos do EF e cresce muito na passagem do EM para a fase universitária. Porém, houveram ganhos nas últimas duas décadas em todas essas dimensões.