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- Elections that Inspire: Effects of Black Mayors on Educational Attainment(2024) Ikawa, Jorge; Martins, Clarice; Sant’Anna, Pedro C.; ROGERIO BIANCHI SANTARROSAWe study the impact of Black mayor’s election in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design on close elections, we find that Black students from municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to enroll in the National High School Examination, attend universities, and graduate. We find suggestive evidence that students’ aspirations play a role: secondary/tertiary education is not mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools.
- Gender and Top Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Ten New Facts from Brazil(2024) Martinez, Tomás R.; Martins Neto, Antonio; URSULA MATTIOLI MELLOThis paper presents ten new facts on gender and top lifetime earnings inequality in Brazil, drawing on rich administrative data covering nearly the entire formal labor market from 1985 to 2018. We document significant gender disparities in lifetime earn ings, particularly among top earners, where women are both underrepresented and face larger earnings gaps compared to men. We identify key drivers of this inequality, in cluding career interruptions, occupational segregation, employment in large firms, and job-switching patterns. Public sector employment partially mitigates these gaps.
- Revisiting the Facts of Economic Growth: insights from assessing misallocation over 70 years for up to 100 countries(2024) Martinez, Tomas R.; Santos, Thiago Trafane OliveiraAssessments of the role played by misallocation in shaping total factor productivity (TFP) have been hindered by constraints in the availability of firm-level data. This paper addresses this issue by developing a static Cournot model that primarily requires standard macroeconomic data to estimate market-power-driven misallocation. We apply this framework to decompose aggregate TFP into technology and allocative efficiency components from 1950 to 2019 for up to a hundred countries from the Penn World Table 10.01. Utilizing this decomposition, we revisit key facts of economic growth. On the one hand, we evaluate the world income frontier as proxied by the US, finding that changes in misallocation can significantly impact short-run growth. On the other hand, we examine the economic performance around the world. Misallocation enhances our understanding of cross-country income differences, even though a substantial unexplained portion persists. We also find a lack of convergence in allocative efficiency, suggesting market-power-driven misallocation is linked, in the long run, to long-lasting country-specific factors such as institutions.
- Assessing the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Poor Areas: The Case of Rural Pensions in Brazil(2024) Komatsu, Bruno Kawaoka; Dias, Lucas; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOIn Brazil, poor women in family agriculture are entitled to a monthly unconditional pension from the government when they turn 55, a large predictable income increase for rural families. In this paper, we use a national family expenditure survey and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design strategy to estimate the impacts of that pension on consumption, finance and labor market indicators. We show that the pension increases income by 50%, but does not change the consumption of non-durables or food insecurity. Loans repayments rise upon receipt of the pension, which implies that access to credit allowed consumption smoothing. We also find heterogeneity of responses by socioeconomic status, with women with lower education levels driving the result, while those with higher education levels increased their non-durable spending. These findings lend support to the standard life-cycle consumption model, even in very poor environments.
- Land, Property and Urban Planning(2024) Sala, Safira De La; Alterman, RachelleOne of the most pressing issues of present times is climate change. With over 55% of the world population living in cities, the question is particularly relevant for urban settlements, and how to consolidate environmental justice in such scenarios. How shall the rule of law approach the matter? It will depend on each place's specific environmental, social and cultural elements, keeping in mind the most needed safeguard of fundamental rights. One of those is property. How does property, underpinning land use and urban planning law, relate to such challenges? This chapter aims to provide an introductory theoretical overview of real (land-related) property and climate change. (Henceforth, by “property” we will be referring to real property). We argue that the impact of property rights on mitigation and adaptation to climate change can be both positive and negative. These will differ across different property rights and planning law regimes in contending with the challenges of climate change.
- Índice Folha de Equilíbrio Racial Relatório Técnico 2022(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, AlyssonEste relatório apresenta os principais resultados referentes ao Índice de Equilíbrio Racial (IER), desenvolvido pelo Núcleo de Estudos Raciais do Insper em parceria com a Folha de São Paulo. O Índice avalia o equilíbrio da representação racial no Brasil tem três componentes: Renda, Educação e Longevidade, agregando essas três dimensões em um índice composto, o IER. A análise inclui os anos de 2001 até 2021, incluindo os níveis nacional, regional e estadual. Os resultados mostram grandes avanços na dimensão da Educação, uma certa estagnação na dimensão da Renda, e aumento das desigualdades raciais na dimensão Longevidade. O IER como um todo mostra avanço lento, sendo necessário mais de 100 anos para atingirmos o equilíbrio racial. Além do IER, também apresentamos resultados mais detalhados para educação, incluindo desequilíbrios raciais no Ensino Fundamental (EF) completo e incompleto e Ensino Médio completo. Também avaliamos o equilíbrio em relação a matriculas totais e nas series adequadas ao longo da infância e juventude. O atraso escolar já surge nos primeiros anos do EF e cresce muito na passagem do EM para a fase universitária. Porém, houveram ganhos nas últimas duas décadas em todas essas dimensões.
Working Paper Analyzing determinants of foreign credit demand for sovereign bonds*(2021) Silva, Victor Hugo C. Alexandrino da; Drzeviechi, Maria Clara; Garcia, Gabriella; Netto, Augusto A. S.This paper aims to investigate the economic determinants of foreign credit demand for sovereign bonds in selected emerging and advanced countries. Furthermore, it is an objective to understand what causes a greater impact on this demand: the country’s domestic macroeconomic fundamentals or the external global environment. To this end, using data on share of foreign demand for sovereign bonds, an econometric analysis will be conducted with panel data from 2004 to 2019 for 45 emerging and advanced markets. The main findings show that both domestic fundamentals and the external environment affect the foreign participation in sovereign debt, but results vary depending on the degree of development and the channel through each variable affect our dependent variable. We find that domestic fundamentals seem to be related with the increase in foreign participation for both group of economies, but with different magnitudes and interpretation. For some variables, it is more related to the foreign demand of sovereign bonds and, for others, associated with the bond supply. The degree of development also seems to be important to the external environment. For some variables (US nominal interest rate), the ’search for yield’ plays a major role for the bond demand. But, for others (as the FX volatility and the VIX Index), the global demand is related with foreign investors’ risk aversion. Finally, we found that, in times of global turmoil, domestic fundamentals matter less for foreign attractiveness than in times when the global volatility is low.Working Paper Clima Organizacional: Abordagem Tradicional vs. Abordagem Configural(2017) TATIANA IWAI; ADRIANA BRUSCATO BORTOLUZZO; Nakata, Lina Eiko; Costa, José Eduardo TeixeiraClima organizacional é um tema que tem sido estudado há algumas décadas, e diversas pesquisas buscaram relacionar seus resultados – integrais ou de dimensões – com desempenho de gestão. No entanto, pouco se tem discutido sobre a interação das dimensões de clima organizacional. O objetivo deste artigo é investigar a relação de clima organizacional com uma variável de resultado organizacional (turnover) a partir de duas abordagens diversas: uma mais tradicional, com foco nas dimensões independentes de clima, e a outra, conhecida como configural, com foco na análise das interrelações entre as categorias. A amostra contou com pesquisas realizadas em 150 empresas brasileiras de porte médio e grande que buscam se destacar pelo seu ambiente de trabalho. Realizou-se análise fatorial exploratória e análise hierárquica de cluster para identificar perfis de configuração de clima (elevação, variabilidade e forma), a fim de relacionar os fatores e as configurações com rotatividade de pessoal. Os resultados mostraram que abordar clima como um sistema, considerando as interações entre suas várias dimensões que compõem uma dada configuração, releva nuances interessantes que de outro modo ficariam encobertas. A abordagem configural apresenta uma relação mais complexa e multifacetada de clima com turnover: a forma configural foi a única que não mostrou-se relevante para turnover; para elevação, houve efeito negativo no turnover, evidenciando que a avaliação global positiva que os funcionários fazem do ambiente de trabalho contribui para diminuir rotatividade nas empresas; por fim, os resultados mostraram um efeito moderador importante da variabilidade na relação entre elevação e turnover.Working Paper Government Appointment Discretion and Judicial Independence: preference and opportunistic effects on Brazilian Courts(2017) Lopes, Felipe; PAULO FURQUIM DE AZEVEDOThe prolific literature on de facto judicial independence misses a key variable: the government’s discretion over the appointment of Supreme Court Justices. In this paper we explore a distinct feature of the Brazilian judiciary system to assess political influence due to government appointment discretion. As there are two courts, the STF (Supreme Federal Court) and the STJ (Superior Court of Justice), which deal with similar matters and have different restrictions on the appointment of their members, it is possible to compare the degree of political influence to which they are subject. We test (1) whether there are differences in the degree of political influence depending on the president’s discretion over the nomination of a justice, and (2) whether the justices actively benefit the party of the president who has appointed them. We find evidence of the former, but not of the latter effect.Working Paper Estudo da predisposição individual para compartilhar conhecimento gerencial: o contexto intraorganiacional de equipes de projeto(2016) CARLA SOFIA DIAS MOREIRA RAMOS; ADRIANA BRUSCATO BORTOLUZZO; Giovanini, Jislaine Rosa Santana; DANNY PIMENTEL CLAROO compartilhamento de conhecimento é, de acordo com uma visão da empresa baseada no conhecimento, uma atividade chave para garantir competitividade. Motivar os colaboradores a buscar esse compartilhamento é um desafio particularmente relevante para empresas que operam numa lógica equipes de projeto. O objetivo deste trabalho consiste em identificar os fatores internos e externos ao individuo que influenciam a predisposição individual para o compartilhamento de conhecimento em ambiente intra-organizacional de equipes de projeto. Identificam-se quatro dimensões chave: a atitude e comportamento do indivíduo, a colegialidade entre membros de equipe, o apoio dado pelos gestores, e a centralidade na rede de relacionamentos do indivíduo. Dez hipóteses são propostas e testadas através de metodologia quantitativa, combinando análise de redes interpessoais e regressão econométrica. O fenómeno é estudado numa base de 121 participações individuais num total de 20 projetos realizados ao longo de dois anos na sucursal de uma empresa multinacional do setor de energia e automação industrial. Observou-se que os fatores que mais impacto têm sobre a predisposição individual para compartilhar conhecimento em equipes de projeto são de natureza tanto intrínseca como extrínseca ao indivíduo e que para além de um efeito direto sobre essa predisposição, se verídica na maioria dos casos também um efeito indireto. O estudo contribui para um melhor entendimento do compartilhamento de conhecimento em ambiente específico de equipes de projeto, permitindo ainda aos gestores uma promoção estratégica de mecanismos que estimulam a desejado fluidez do conhecimento entre membros de equipes de projeto.Working Paper Efficient Bayesian Inference for Multivariate Factor Stochastic Volatility Models(2016) Kastner, Gregor; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPESWe discuss efficient Bayesian estimation of dynamic covariance matrices in multivariate time series through a factor stochastic volatility model. In particular, we propose two interweaving strategies (Yu and Meng, 2011) to substantially accelerate convergence and mixing of standard MCMC approaches. Similar to marginal data augmentation techniques, the proposed acceleration procedures exploit non-identifiability issues which frequently arise in factor models. Our new interweaving strategies are easy to implement and come at almost no extra computational cost; nevertheless, they can boost estimation efficiency by several orders of magnitude as is shown in extensive simulation studies. To conclude, the application of our algorithm to a 26-dimensional exchange rate data set illustrates the superior performance of the new approach for real-world data.Working Paper Velocidade da moeda e ciclos econômicos no Brasil, 1900-2016.(2016) Vieira, Heleno Piazentini; Pereira, Pedro Luiz VallsO objetivo deste trabalho é identificar e descrever o comportamento da velocidade da moeda no Brasil de 1900 até 2016 dentro dos ciclos de negócios. Este trabalho constrói uma série trimestral para a velocidade da moeda neste período. O trabalho estuda esse comportamento nas perspectivas de longo e de curto prazos e tem como referência uma cronologia de datação cíclica. Além de identificar as tendências dessa variável ao longo do tempo, o trabalho levanta alguns possíveis fatores explicativos para tal comportamento, os quais exigem investigação futura. O principal resultado foi que a relação direta entre velocidade e ciclo econômico pode ser observada no caso brasileiro de 1929 até 1945. Nos anos anteriores a velocidade subiu nas expansões datadas, mas esta relação direta não é estável nos períodos recessivos. No período histórico posterior nem mesmo essa relação direta com os cenários de expansão se verifica. O papel da inflação parece ser central na explicação do comportamento da velocidade brasileiro no período pós-guerras.Working Paper Updating Pricing Rules(2016) Araujo, Aloisio; Chateauneuf, Alain; JOSÉ HELENO FARO; Holanda, BrunoThis paper studies the problem of updating the super-replication prices of na arbitrage-free market in a multiperiod setting. We introduce a set of standard properties and a (weak) version of Dynamic Consistency to characterize the updated pricing rules by the Full Bayesian Rule. Since different pricing rules are related to different kinds of frictions on the financial markets, this study allow us to analyze the evolution of the market structure when new informations are revealed. We also provide a geometric characterization for the pricing rules that characterizes frictionless incomplete markets. This geometric property is useful to demonstrate that the incomplete frictionless market structure is invariant under updating when a non trivial updating condition between the set of risk-neutral measures and revealed information is present.Working Paper Rational Sunspots(2016) Ascari, Guido; Banomolo, Paolo; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPESThe instability of macroeconomic variables is usually ruled out by rational expectations. We propose a generalization of the rational expectations framework to estimate possible temporary unstable paths. Our approach yields drifting parameters and stochastic volatility. The methodology allows the data to choose between diferent possible alternatives: determinacy, indeterminacy and instability. We apply our methodology to US inflation dynamics in the '70s through the lens of a simple New Keynesian model. When unstable RE paths are allowed, the data unambiguously select them to explain the stagflation period in the '70s. Thus, our methodology suggests that US inflation dynamics in the '70s is better described by unstable rational equilibrium paths.Working Paper Economic Incentives or Communication: How Different Are their Effects on Trust(2016) TATIANA IWAI; PAULO FURQUIM DE AZEVEDOThis study investigates the effects of economic incentives and communication on the cognitive and behavioral responses after an alleged trust violation. We argue that these responses depend on the type of solution used to foster cooperation between agents. On the cognitive level, we compare the effects that structural (economic incentives) and motivational (communication) solutions exert on trusting beliefs and trusting intentions after an adverse event. On the behavioral level, we compare these effects on the willingness to bear risk. Our experiment shows that, after a negative event, relationships wherein communication is used to foster cooperation are associated to greater external causal attribution, greater perceived benevolence/integrity, and greater willingness to reconcile and to accept risks related to other's behavior. These findings suggest that relationships based on motivational solutions are more resilient to negative events than one based on structural solutions.Working Paper Semi-parametric inference for the means of heavy-tailed distributions(2016) Taddy, Matt; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; Goldberg, David; Gardner, MattHeavy tailed distributions present a tough setting for inference. They are also common in industrial applications, particularly with Internet transaction datasets, and machine learners often analyze such data without considering the biases and risks associated with the misuse of standard tools. This article outlines a procedure for inference about the (possibly conditional) mean of a heavy tailed distribution that combines nonparametric inference for the bulk of the support with parametric inference – motivated from extreme value theory – for the heavy tail. We are able to derive analytic posterior conditional means and variances for the expected value of a heavy tailed distributivo. We also introduce a simple and novel independence Metropolis Hastings algorithm that samples from the distribution for tail parameters via small adjustments to a parametric bootstrap, and through this algorithm are able to provide comparisons between our framework and frequentist semiparametric inference. We also provide a modeling extension that shrinks tails across distributions to an overall background tail. We illustrate on two examples: treatment effect estimation on a set of 72 A/B experiments, and the fitting of regression trees for prediction of user spending. Both use data from tens of millions of users of eBay.com.Working Paper Cholesky Realized Stochasti Volatility Model(2016) Shirota, Shinichiro; Omori, Yashiro; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; Piao, HaixiangMultivariate stochastic volatility models with leverage are expected to play important roles in financial applications such as asset allocation and risk management. However, these models suffer from two major difficulties: (1) there are too many parameters to estimate using only daily asset returns and (2) estimated covariance matrices are not guaranteed to be positive definite. Our approach takes advantage of realized covariances to attain the efficient estimation of parameters by incorporating additional information for the co-volatilities, and considers Cholesky decomposition to guarantee the positive definiteness of the covariance matrices. In this framework, we propose a flexible modeling for stylized facts of financial markets such as dynamic correlations and leverage effects among volatilities. Taking a Bayesian approach, we describe Markov Chain Monte Carlo implementation with a simple but efficient sampling scheme. Our model is applied to nine U.S. stock returns data, and the model comparison is conducted based on portfolio performances.Working Paper Policy Interventions to Favor Small Firms in Public Contracting: Effects on Public Value Creation and Firm Level Outcomes(2016) SANDRO CABRALThis paper analyzes how capabilities can attenuate the pervasive effects of policy interventions to favor small firms (SMEs) in public contracting. Results obtained from a quasi-experiment in Brazil comprising 1472 service contracts show that public officer’s contract-management capabilities can moderate the effects of policy interventions and promote cost savings, increased responsiveness (government-level outcomes), and enhanced buyer-supplier coordination when favored firms are successful in public contracting. Execution capabilities of private suppliers can also attenuate the undesired side-effects of policy interventions on firm level outcomes, by moderating the severity of sanctions due to deficient provision. The paper highlights the mechanisms for leveraging performance in public-private interactions. By focusing on the interactions between public and private actors in public contracting, the study adds to the current knowledge of strategic management in the context of public organizations by demonstrating how capabilities can reconcile conflicting goals despite inherent contract incompleteness and bureaucratic rigidity.Working Paper Estudo de modelos de apreçamento de ativos de risco antes e depois da crise financeira de 2008 no mercado brasileiro(2016) ADRIANA BRUSCATO BORTOLUZZO; Venezuela, Maria Kelly; Bortoluzzo, Maurício Mesquita; Nakamura, Wilson ToshiroEste artigo faz um estudo comparativo entre três modelos de apreçamento de ativos de risco, o CAPM de Sharpe-Lintner, o modelo de 3 fatores de Fama e French e o modelo de 4 fatores de Cahart. Apresentamos uma metodologia de alocação dos ativos nas carteiras para mercados emergentes. Diferente de estudos anteriores, o foco da comparação dos modelos está em suas capacidades de previsão. O período foi subdividido para tornar possível a análise dos desempenhos nos períodos da crise financeira de 2008, anterior e posterior à crise. Os resultados apontam para um melhor desempenho dos modelos multifatoriais em todos os períodos. Para o período pós-crise, o modelo de 4 fatores apresenta uma melhora de 36,85% na qualidade de previsão comparado ao modelo de 3 fatores.Working Paper Credit rating de empresas não financeiras: um estudo comparative entre Brasil e Estados Unidos(2016) Carvalho, Davih; Martins, Sergio Ricardo; ADRIANA BRUSCATO BORTOLUZZOO presente trabalho tem como objetivo verificar os principais determinantes do rating de sociedades anônimas de capital aberto não financeiras no Brasil e nos Estados Unidos, listadas na BM&FBOVESPA e NYSE respectivamente, e comparar e fundamentar seus resultados. Para tanto, foi utilizado o modelo Probit ordinal em painel, buscando explicar a formação do rating das empresas. Dentro do escopo das variáveis explicativas contábeis das companhias, pôde-se concluir que as agências de rating dão significância a determinantes similares em ambos os mercados, demonstrando consistência metodológica e conexão entre os mercados financeiros brasileiro e americano.