Artigos em Andamento [Working Paper]
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3232
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Resultados da Pesquisa
- Assessing the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Poor Areas: The Case of Rural Pensions in Brazil(2024) Komatsu, Bruno Kawaoka; Dias, Lucas; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOIn Brazil, poor women in family agriculture are entitled to a monthly unconditional pension from the government when they turn 55, a large predictable income increase for rural families. In this paper, we use a national family expenditure survey and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design strategy to estimate the impacts of that pension on consumption, finance and labor market indicators. We show that the pension increases income by 50%, but does not change the consumption of non-durables or food insecurity. Loans repayments rise upon receipt of the pension, which implies that access to credit allowed consumption smoothing. We also find heterogeneity of responses by socioeconomic status, with women with lower education levels driving the result, while those with higher education levels increased their non-durable spending. These findings lend support to the standard life-cycle consumption model, even in very poor environments.
- I’ve Got You Covered: The Role of Spousal Information Sharing in Applying for Social Security Pensions in Rural Brazil(2024) Souza, Augusto Ranier de A.; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Komatsu, Bruno KawaokaIn this paper, we assess the mechanism of spousal information sharing about retirement benefits as a key factor determining access to social security among married Brazilian couples residing in rural areas. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we unveil a significant increase in the probability of an individual’s access to an age-related retirement benefit as a result of his/her partner gaining access to it, even in cases where the individual was previously already entitled to the benefit. We also show that the effect is stronger among low educated couples and that the hypothesis of retirement spillovers cannot account for this phenomenon.
Working Paper Entry in School Markets: Theory and Evidence from Brazilian Municipalities(2012) NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simões; Andrade, Eduardo de CarvalhoThis paper develops a theoretical model of private school entry and estimates it using data from Brazilian municipalities. The school market is different from other markets because students are both consumers and inputs in the production fuction of education. There is a benefit to study among good peers. The theoretical model predicts a segregated equilib rium where the better students attend the private schools, rendering these with a better (endogenous) quality than the public ones. Hence, a private institution only needs to attract the best local students to be better than the existing public schools. The model’s main prediction is that educa tional inequality induces entry. We use a panel data of private school entry in Brazilian municipalities between 1995 and 2000 to estimate an entry model. The econometric results confirm the main theoretical find ing: education inequality has a positive effect on entry. A higher degree of inequality increases the private schools’ ability to cream skim the best students. We also observe a decrease in the quality of the public schools, as measured by math and reading test scores, when a private school enters a town.Working Paper The impact of the expansion of the bolsa familia program on the time allocation of youths and their parents(2015) Chitolina, Lia; Foguel, Miguel Nathan; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOThis paper evaluates the impact of the 2007 expansion of the Bolsa Família program to families with youths aged 16 to 17 years on the time allocation of youths and on the labor supply of their parents. A differences-in-differences intention to treat estimator was used to compare poor households with 16-year-old youths with households with 15-year-old adolescents before and after the expansion. The results show that granting the benefit had a positive and significant impact on school attendance, helping bridge 25% of the gap in school attendance between rich and poor households, and on the decision of young people to study and work at the same time.Working Paper Inter-regional Wage Differentials with Individual Heterogeneity: Evidence from Brazil(2011) Freguglia, Ricardo da Silva; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOThis paper uses administrative data to follow Brazilian workers over time and examine what happens to the inter-regional wage differentials after controlling for unmeasured workers’ characteristics that are fixed over time. Since the data allow us to track the same workers over the years, we are in the unusual position of obtaining the individual wages before and after the migration process. As a significant share of workers changed States in the sample period, it is possible to examine to what extent the wage differentials reflect the concentration of high skilled individuals in some States. The results show that the overall wage variability across States drops to almost one third of its original value and the ranking of the State effects is significantly altered after we take into account the workers’ fixed effects. A great deal of the inter-regional differentials, therefore, reflects differences in the average ability of workers across States.Working Paper The Effects of Trade Liberalization on Productivity Growth in Brazil: Competition or Technology?(2010) Lisboa, Marcos de Barros; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Schor, AdrianaThis paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on productivity growth in Brazil. In contrast with the previous literature, we examine whether this relationship is driven by product or input market effects, by including both output and input tariffs in firm-level productivity regressions and allowing for imperfect competition in the product market. The results show that the reductions of input tariffs were more important to explain the productivity growth that took place during trade liberalization in Brazil. Lower input tariffs may allow firms to access foreign inputs with more advanced technology at lower prices. Moreover, we find that the reduction in input tariffs led to a rise in mark-ups, while the reduction in output tariffs did the opposite.Working Paper Opportunistic and Partisan Election Cycles in Brazil: New Evidence at the Municipal Level(2010) Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOThis article tests the hypothesis of opportunistic and partisan cycle models using a new large data set of Brazilian municipalities over the 1989-2005 period. The results show an increase in total and current expenditures and a decrease in municipal investments, local tax revenues and budget surplus in election years. They also show that partisan ideology exerts a relative influence on the performance of the local public accounts. These results confirm that both opportunistic and partisan cycles have occurred in the management of the budgets of Brazilian municipalities after the end of the military government.Working Paper Employment and Inequality of Outcomes in Brazil(2009) NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Scorzafave, LuizAfter a couple of decades with very volatile macroeconomic conditions and high levels of inequality, growth in the new century in Brazil has been able to generate jobs at an increasing rate. This has led to a decline in unemployment and in informality, despite an increasing labour force participation rate. The increasing human capital accumulation, coupled with the amplification of conditional cash transfer programs, like Bolsa-Familia, has led to a steady fall in inequality, for the first time in decades. This evidence suggests that, after a period of adjustment to the trade liberalization and privatization reforms, Brazil has found a stable path of development. In order to continue in this positive path, despite the recent global economic crisis, Brazil has to continue expanding the education of its workforce, improve the Bolsa-Família program, so that the recipients can find a way out of poverty through participation in the labour market, and promote institutional reforms to speed up the process of creating new firms, reduce the tax burden levied on the small formal firms and speed up the labour market reforms to make the hiring of formal employees less expensive in Brazil.Working Paper Fiscal policy and reelection in Brazilian municipalities(2008) Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOThis paper uses a new panel of more than two thousand Brazilian municipalities over thirteen years to analyze the influence of public expenditures on the probability of mayors’ reelection. We examine Brazilian municipal elections from 1988 to 2000 using a logit fixed effects model. The results suggest that higher public expenditures executed during the whole political term increase the probability of reelection of Brazilian mayors. In particular, higher capital spending over the years preceding elections and current expenditures in election years are beneficial to Brazilian incumbent mayors.Working Paper Imports and the survival of new exporters in Colombia(2015) Boehe, Dirk; CAMILA DE FREITAS SOUZA CAMPOS; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO