Working Papers
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3232
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- Public Services under Private Management(2025) Coube, Maíra; LUIZ FELIPE CAMPOS FONTES; Rocha, RudiTheory predicts that outsourcing public services to the private sector can reduce costs and improve efficiency, but can also induce cost-cutting measures and compromise quality should the surplus rights be controlled by firms. We empirically assess the effects of the Brazilian “Organizations Sociais de Saúde” model (OSS), which involves specifically outsourcing the management of public hospital services to the private sector while keeping surplus rights with the state. We use a difference-in-differences approach to assess OSS effects, and document evidence of enhanced hospital production and operational efficiency without adverse effects on hospital quality and equity. Increased in patient production addresses previously unmet demand, expanding local access to hospital care and contributing to declines in population mortality. Performance gains primarily arise from improved operational efficiency achieved through increased hospital management capacity. Such capacity facilitates staffing adjustments, favouring higher-skilled personnel, dismissing lower-productivity staff, and adopting flexible, performance-tied employment contracts. Effects are especially pronounced among private organisations with more management experience, underscoring positive returns to managerial capacity. Our findings support the view that incentive-ownership structures can potentially address the conventional quantity-quality trade-off in public service delivery, even within the challenging policy context of a developing country.
- Salience-Biased Nested Logit(2025) Caluz, Antonio Daniel; JOSÉ HELENO FARO; Sanches, Fabio MiessiThis paper introduces a two-level nested stochastic choice model in which nest probabilities are driven by salience. A category comprises alternatives that might be costly to gather information about, and we implicitly assume that market leaders are easier to familiarize oneself with. By learning about those alternatives more affordably, the items with the highest probability within each category become their respective saliences when selecting the category. Formally, a partition of the available options defines the collection of nests (categories), while a Luce function assigns weights to all alternatives. These two components represent the salience-biased nested logit (SBNL) model, which differs from the standard nested logit (NL) model primarily because the nest probabilities are determined solely by the highest probability within each category, which defines the corresponding salient alternative in our approach. Like the NL model, the Luce model is applicable within categories. While SBNL usually violates regularity, which leads to a form of market leader effect, we can develop a specific case of our model within the conventional random utility framework and demonstrate its broad applicability in practice under a standard parametric specification for utility. This results in a well-specified method for estimating the model’s parameters using individual or aggregate market data. It serves as an additional tool for analyzing market shares and clarifying how price elasticities may display different patterns according to marginal effects on demand stemming from variations in the prices of market share leaders (the salient ones) compared to price changes in non-leader alternatives.
- Inflation targeting did make a difference in industrial countries’ inflation and output growth(2012) Brito, Ricardo D.I reevaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting (IT) in industrial economies that adopted this regime in the early 1990s through dynamic panel regressions to show that IT had significant enhancing effects on realized inflation and GDP growth. I also refine the propensity score matching of Lin and Ye [2007. Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), 2521-2533] and Ball and Sheridan’s [2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke B, Woodford M (Eds), The inflation targeting debate, 249-276] cross-section regressions to show that their conclusion of IT irrelevance can be overturned. By analyzing other samples that extend theirs, I provide further evidence of the pioneering IT systems good performance among developed countries.
- Inflation targeting did make a difference in industrial countries’ inflation and output growth(2011) Brito, Ricardo D.I reevaluate the treatment effect of inflation targeting (IT) in industrial economies that adopted this regime in the early 1990s through dynamic panel regressions to show that IT had significant enhancing effects on realized inflation and GDP growth. I also refine the propensity score matching of Lin and Ye [2007. Does inflation targeting really make a difference? Evaluating the treatment effect of inflation targeting in seven industrial countries. Journal of Monetary Economics 54(8), 2521-2533] and Ball and Sheridan’s [2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke B, Woodford M (Eds), The inflation targeting debate, 249-276] cross-section regressions to show that their conclusion of IT irrelevance can be overturned. By analyzing other samples that extend theirs, I provide further evidence of the pioneering IT systems good performance among developed countries.
- Permanent Excess Demand as Business Strategy: An analysis of the Brazilian higher-education market(2013) Andrade, Eduardo; Moita, Rodrigo; CARLOS EDUARDO LINS DA SILVAMany Higher Education Institutions (HEIs) establish tuition below the equilibrium price to generate permanent excess demand. This paper first builds on Becker’s (1991) theory to understand why the HEIs price in this way. The fact that students are both consumers and inputs on the education production function gives rise to an equilibrium where some firms have permanent excess demand. Second, the paper analyzes this equilibrium empirically. The results show that the HEIs give up 7.6% of the revenue coming from a freshman class in order to have better students and to differentiate themselves as high quality in the market.
- Subway Expansion, Jobs Accessibility and Home Value Appreciation in Four Global Cities: Considering Both Local and Network Effects(2021) ADRIANO BORGES FERREIRA DA COSTA; Ramos, Camila; Zheng, SiqiWe explore the potential of incorporating accessibility analysis in studying the impact of subway expansions on the real estate market. We first demonstrate that using increases in accessibility to firms as a continuous treatment variable instead of its binary alternative, the station-dummy approach, yields better goodness-of-fit in a quasi-experimental econometric analysis. We show that the dummy treatment variable consistently reported overestimated coefficients of impact for new subway stations. Furthermore, accessibility measures allow the exploration of impacts beyond the local effects around new subway stations, shedding light on network impact that has been largely overlooked in the literature. To provide greater external validity to our results, we apply the same analysis to the cities of Santiago (Chile), São Paulo (Brazil), Singapore, and Barcelona (Spain) and explore the common results. We argue that the integration of urban economics and transportation analysis can bring innovation to the empirical approach commonly adopted in the literature, and the use of accessibility measures in causal empirical studies on transportation impacts can produce more robust and comprehensive results and capture the nuanced spatial heterogeneity effects.
- Elections that Inspire: Effects of Black Mayors on Educational Attainment(2024) Ikawa, Jorge; Martins, Clarice; Sant’Anna, Pedro C.; ROGERIO BIANCHI SANTARROSAWe study the impact of Black mayor’s election in Brazil on Black students’ educational attainment. Using a regression discontinuity design on close elections, we find that Black students from municipalities where Black candidates won are more likely to enroll in the National High School Examination, attend universities, and graduate. We find suggestive evidence that students’ aspirations play a role: secondary/tertiary education is not mayor’s primary responsibility; Black mayors do not perform better in policies that affect our outcomes; and effects are strong for Black students from both public and private schools, while weaker for White students from public schools.
- Gender and Top Lifetime Earnings Inequality: Ten New Facts from Brazil(2024) Martins Neto, Antonio; URSULA MATTIOLI MELLO; TOMÁS RODRIGUEZ MARTINEZThis paper presents ten new facts on gender and top lifetime earnings inequality in Brazil, drawing on rich administrative data covering nearly the entire formal labor market from 1985 to 2018. We document significant gender disparities in lifetime earn ings, particularly among top earners, where women are both underrepresented and face larger earnings gaps compared to men. We identify key drivers of this inequality, in cluding career interruptions, occupational segregation, employment in large firms, and job-switching patterns. Public sector employment partially mitigates these gaps.
- Assessing the Permanent Income Hypothesis in Poor Areas: The Case of Rural Pensions in Brazil(2024) Komatsu, Bruno Kawaoka; Dias, Lucas; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOIn Brazil, poor women in family agriculture are entitled to a monthly unconditional pension from the government when they turn 55, a large predictable income increase for rural families. In this paper, we use a national family expenditure survey and a fuzzy regression discontinuity design strategy to estimate the impacts of that pension on consumption, finance and labor market indicators. We show that the pension increases income by 50%, but does not change the consumption of non-durables or food insecurity. Loans repayments rise upon receipt of the pension, which implies that access to credit allowed consumption smoothing. We also find heterogeneity of responses by socioeconomic status, with women with lower education levels driving the result, while those with higher education levels increased their non-durable spending. These findings lend support to the standard life-cycle consumption model, even in very poor environments.
- I’ve Got You Covered: The Role of Spousal Information Sharing in Applying for Social Security Pensions in Rural Brazil(2024) Souza, Augusto Ranier de A.; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Komatsu, Bruno KawaokaIn this paper, we assess the mechanism of spousal information sharing about retirement benefits as a key factor determining access to social security among married Brazilian couples residing in rural areas. Employing a regression discontinuity design, we unveil a significant increase in the probability of an individual’s access to an age-related retirement benefit as a result of his/her partner gaining access to it, even in cases where the individual was previously already entitled to the benefit. We also show that the effect is stronger among low educated couples and that the hypothesis of retirement spillovers cannot account for this phenomenon.