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Centro de Gestão e Políticas Públicas (CGPP)
O CGPP tem o objetivo de promover o debate informado sobre diagnóstico, formulação e avaliação de políticas públicas no Brasil.
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Policy Paper Does access to Starlink improve criminal capability in the Amazon?(2025) Borges, Pedro Pereira; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Komatsu, Bruno; Maturano, DimitriStarlink began its operations as a satellite-broadband internet services provider in the Brazilian Amazon in 2022; since then, forest loss drastically increased due to the spread of wildfires, despite efforts to curb deforestation. We estimate Starlink leads to a change in profile for environmental crimes, with a substitution from clear-cutting deforestation to the spread of wildfires which, seemingly, are tied to increases in deforestation by successive degradation. We find, however, little evidence for increased policing—particularly so in protected and sensitive areas, like Conservation Units and Indigenous Peoples’ Lands—, suggesting criminals successfully exploit expansion in informational infrastructure to evade lawenforcement agents, despite the apparent slowdown in deforestation.Policy Paper Electoral Impacts of Denialist Speech during a Pandemic(2025) Maturano, Dimitri; Komatsu, Bruno Kawaoka; NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHOWe examine electoral repercussions of denialist campaigns during a global pandemic, focusing on the impact of COVID-19 on the electoral performance of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019 to 2022). Leveraging intercity variations in commuting costs, we develop a novel instrument, grounded in epidemiological models of transmission, capturing exogenous exposition to the virus. Our analysis reveals that municipalities with lower isolation faced higher cumulative mortality rates which, in turn, imposed significant electoral costs on Bolsonaro. We attribute these costs, which were determinant to electoral outcomes and his defeat, to voters’ perceptions of his administration’s recklessness, driven by public speeches belittling the crisis, rather than voters’ support for strict sanitary policies or a generalized tendency to penalize incumbents during crises.