Electoral Impacts of Denialist Speech during a Pandemic

Abstract

We examine electoral repercussions of denialist campaigns during a global pandemic, focusing on the impact of COVID-19 on the electoral performance of Brazil’s former president Jair Bolsonaro (2019 to 2022). Leveraging intercity variations in commuting costs, we develop a novel instrument, grounded in epidemiological models of transmission, capturing exogenous exposition to the virus. Our analysis reveals that municipalities with lower isolation faced higher cumulative mortality rates which, in turn, imposed significant electoral costs on Bolsonaro. We attribute these costs, which were determinant to electoral outcomes and his defeat, to voters’ perceptions of his administration’s recklessness, driven by public speeches belittling the crisis, rather than voters’ support for strict sanitary policies or a generalized tendency to penalize incumbents during crises.