PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO
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Artigo Científico Bayesian generalizations of the integer-valued autoregressive model(2022) HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Graziadei, HeltonArtigo Científico Probabilistic Nearest Neighbors Classification(2024) Fava, Bruno; PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPESAnalysis of the currently established Bayesian nearest neighbors classification model points to a connection between the computation of its normalizing constant and issues of NP-completeness. An alternative predictive model constructed by aggregating the predictive distributions of simpler nonlocal models is proposed, and analytic expressions for the normalizing constants of these nonlocal models are derived, ensuring polynomial time computation without approximations. Experiments with synthetic and real datasets showcase the predictive performance of the proposed predictive model.Artigo Científico Prior Sensitivity Analysis in a Semi-Parametric Integer-Valued Time Series Model(2020) Graziadei, Helton; Lijoi, Antonio; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPES; PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Prünster, IgorArtigo Científico Bayesian generalizations of the integer-valued autoregressive model(2020) PAULO CILAS MARQUES FILHO; Graziadei, Helton; HEDIBERT FREITAS LOPESWe develop two Bayesian generalizations of the Poisson integer-valued autoregressive model. The AdINAR(1) model accounts for overdispersed data by means of an innovation process whose marginal distributions are finite mixtures, while the DP-INAR(1) model is a hierarchical extension involving a Dirichlet process, which is capable of modeling a latent pattern of heterogeneity in the distribution of the innovations rates. The probabilistic forecasting capabilities of both models are put to test in the analysis of crime data in Pittsburgh, with favorable results.