Roads, transit, and the denseness of São Paulo's urban development
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2021
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Taking São Paulo as our case study, we present causal inference that the construction
of avenues and arterial roads crossing the urbanized area and connecting suburban and
peripheral neighborhoods have generated urban expansion, extending the city’s urban
footprint of the fastest growing city in the world in the mid-20th century. Each kilometer
of new avenues and arterial roads generated between 5% and 9% increase in the local
urbanization rate between 1947 and 1997. On the other hand, investments in rail transit
have promoted vertical neighborhoods, increasing the floor area ratio in settings nearby
São Paulo's central area. And each additional kilometer of transit lines was responsible
for increasing local FAR in between 2.5 and 4.75, meaning 10 to 19 square kilometers
of additional built-up area. This is the first joint causal inference of urban roads and
transit different impacts on horizontal and vertical urban development. Our results also
confirm that transit investments have stimulated specialization of land uses in São Paulo
by attracting more commercial buildings to central areas and stimulating residential real
estate development in areas further away. In this paper we take advantage of the fact
that several avenues and arterial roads in São Paulo were built using the free course
left by urban rivers that were channeled as an exogenous source of variation for the
application of an instrumental variable approach. Abandoned streetcar routes were used
as an instrument for recent rail transit investments. Long difference regressions were
used to estimate the causal effect of these different types of transport on the type of
urbanization in São Paulo. Besides the contribution to the academic empirical literature
on the interaction between transportation and land use, our findings have huge
implications for “new urbanism” movements and among contemporary planning
strategies that promote transit as a strategy to promote sustainable urbanization.
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Área do Conhecimento CNPQ
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS