Coleção de Artigos em Andamento [Working Papers]
URI Permanente para esta coleção
Navegar
Submissões Recentes
Working Paper Descriptive Representation in Politics: A Measurement Proposal and Application for Brazil(2023) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Pereira, Leila; Tavares, Rafael- Experimental Evaluation of a Financial Education Program in Elementary and Middle School Grades(2023) Piza, Caio; ISABELA BRANDÃO FURTADO; Amorim, Vivian de FatimaThis paper investigates whether providing financial education in elementary and middle school grades improves students' financial proficiency and actual behavior. It uses a cluster randomized control trial to evaluate a pilot program implemented in 101 Brazilian municipal schools in 2015. The findings show positive impacts on financial proficiency, mainly among middle school students, and suggestive evidence of improvements in short-term behavioral outcomes. However, the analysis indicates that the program did not impact students' school achievements in both the short and longer terms, which suggests that the program's effects were not strong enough to shift students' behavior decisions.
- Descriptive Representation in Politics: A Measurement Proposal and Application for Brazil(2023) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Pereira, Leila; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelThis paper introduces a new measure of descriptive representation in politics. It improves upon simple measures such as the share or the number of elected minorities by also taking into account the minority size among the represented. Moreover, contrary to disproportionality measures that are sometimes employed in the context of descriptive representation, our measure attains the upper bound in more usual situations. Based on the statistical properties of our index, we derive hypothesis tests that can be used to assess the likelihood of a representative body's observed composition being the result of an unbiased process.To illustrate its use, we apply the proposed index to evaluate the racial imbalances in the 2014 and 2018 Brazilian National and State legislative elections. This exercise shows that the inclusion of Non-whites in institutional politics has been partial and restricted only to candidacies. The imbalance among elected representatives is considerably larger than among candidates and we can reject the hypothesis that it was generated by chance in the majority of Brazilian states. We also investigate differences between left-wing and right-wing parties, observing lower imbalances among candidates in the left, but no difference when we restrict the analysis to elected representatives.
Working Paper Desigualdade Racial e de Gênero nas Eleições Municipais no Brasil(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelEste trabalho contribui com a literatura que procura estimar os desequilíbrios raciais e de gênero na representação política municipal brasileira. Para isso, utilizamos dados das eleições de prefeitos e vereadores de 2016 e 2020 com o intuito de investigar em que medida mulheres negras, homens negros e mulheres brancas estão sub-representados em relação aos homens brancos em nosso sistema político local. Nossa análise revela altos níveis de desequilíbrios, em especial na dimensão de gênero. Para prefeitos, os desequilíbrios são altos quando consideramos tanto as candidaturas quanto os que foram eleitos. No caso dos vereadores, o desequilíbrio é maior entre os eleitos. Adicionalmente, verificamos que havia uma alta desigualdade no financiamento de campanhas em favor de homens brancos em 2016, que se reverte em favor das mulheres em 2020. Contudo, essa mudança não foi capaz de alterar os baixos níveis de representação feminina na política local.- Desigualdade Racial nas Eleições Brasileiras (Racial Inequality in Brazilian Elections)(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelUsing data from Brazilian elections for federal and state legislative chambers from 2014 and 2018, we investigated the measure of racial balance in descriptive representation, that is, how much candidates and elected representatives reflect the racial composition of the population. We construct a Racial Balance Index (RBI) that aims to compare the percentage of black candidates and elected representatives with their percentage in the electorate. We analyze this index at the national and state levels, as well as within parties, also taking into account their ideological position. The results indicate some racial balance with respect to candidacies, but a high imbalance when we consider the elected representatives. To complement the analysis, we also investigated racial disparities in access to campaign resources. We found that not only do black candidates receive fewer resources on average, but these resources are more concentrated among them.
- Public Childcare, Labor Market Outcomes of Caregivers, and Child Development: Experimental Evidence from Brazil(2022) Attanasio, Orazio; RICARDO PAES DE BARROS; Carneiro, Pedro; Evans, David K.; Lima, Lycia; Olinto, Pedro; Schady, NorbertThis study examines the impact of publicly provided daycare for children aged 0-3 on outcomes of children and their caregivers over the course of seven years after enrollment into daycare. At the end of 2007, the city of Rio de Janeiro in Brazil used a lottery to assign children to limited public daycare openings. Winning the lottery translated to a 34 percent increase in total time in daycare during a child’s first four years of life. This allowed caregivers more time to work, resulting in higher incomes for beneficiary households in the first year of daycare attendance and 4 years later (but not after 7 years, by which time all children were eligible for universal schooling). The rise in labor force participation is driven primarily by grandparents and by adolescent siblings residing in the same household as (and possibly caring for) the child, and not by parents, most of whom were already working. Beneficiary children saw sustained gains in height-for-age and weight-for- age, likely due to the better nutritional intake they benefit from in daycare. Shorter term gains in beneficiary children’s cognitive development were also observed, driven primarily by a short term improvement in home resources and environments.
Working Paper Desigualdade Racial nas Eleições Brasileiras(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelWorking Paper Political competition and the provision of early childhood education and care: evidence from Brazil(2022) Portella, Alysson Lorenzon; Tebaldi, RaquelThe objective of this paper is to investigate whether higher political competition induces the expansion of public early childhood education and care (ECEC) services using Brazil as a case study. Public ECEC services are provided mainly by Brazilian municipalities and although enrolment for children aged 0 to 3 is not mandatory, it has increased continuously in the last two decades, with large heterogeneity across municipalities. In addition, electoral rules in Brazil establishes a dual-ballot system only for municipalities with more than 200,000 registered voters. This provides an exogenous variation in political competition that enables us to evaluate its impact on ECEC provision through a regression discontinuity design. We find that average estimated municipal crèche net enrolment rates are around 3 percentage points larger in municipalities with the dual-ballot. ECEC expenditure levels are also higher in these municipalities.Working Paper A Regionalização da Saúde no Brasil(2022) LETICIA FARIA DE CARVALHO NUNES; Rocha, Rudi; Rache, BeatrizRESUMO EXECUTIVO – A regionalização é vista como uma prioridade de política pública em saúde no Brasil, mas ainda é um trabalho em andamento. No entanto, apesar de existir grande esforço de pesquisa sobre o tema, muitas questões importantes persistem, por exemplo: (i) em que medida a regionalização avançou no país?; (ii) tem sido de fato induzida pelas normas federais?; (iii) quais os fatores que têm permitido a indução ou que têm restringido o movimento do sistema em direção à organização regional? Neste estudo, realizamos uma ampla análise empírica sobre padrões de expansão e reorganização de serviços de saúde, recursos hospitalares e fluxos de internação entre municípios ao longo das últimas duas décadas com o objetivo de avaliar se houve uma reorganização do sistema em direção a um desenho regional, e se este movimento se relaciona às normativas introduzidas. Ressaltamos desafios a um funcionamento mais regional da saúde no Brasil. O processo de descentralização do SUS e a falta de uma instância regional formal no pacto federativo dificultam a cooperação entre os entes federados. Ainda, outro desafio importante refere-se à falta de uma entidade regional com autonomia e financiamento próprio.Working Paper The Role of Restructuring in Bank M&As: Evidence from Branch-level Data(2022) Mariani, Lucas Argentieri; BERNARDO DE OLIVEIRA GUERRA RICCAWorking Paper Panorama da Cobertura Vacinal do Brasil, 2020(2021) LETICIA FARIA DE CARVALHO NUNESA vacinação foi eleita sucessivamente uma das dez maiores conquistas da saúde pública no último século, sendo responsável por uma incrível redução da morbidade e mortalidade por doenças infecciosas em todo o mundo (CDC 1999, 2011). Estimativas revelam que vacinas administradas entre 2000 e 2030 em países de baixa e média renda podem prevenir 69 milhões de mortes, principalmente entre crianças de até 5 anos (Li et al. 2021). E, nesse último ano, a pandemia de COVID-19 reforçou o papel revolucionário da vacina na saúde global, que se tornou o principal instrumento para que o atual cenário seja superado. O presente relatório acompanha a evolução da cobertura vacinal no Brasil nos últimos anos e fornece um panorama da situação em 2020, primeiro ano da pandemia, para nove imunobiológicos presentes no Calendário Nacional de Vacinação: poliomielite, tríplice viral (primeira dose), BCG, pentavalente, hepatite B (em crianças até 30 dias), hepatite A, pneumocócica, meningocócica C e rotavírus humano. O objetivo é contribuir para o monitoramento e a análise das políticas de vacinação no país, de forma a identificar avanços e retrocessos em diferentes níveis geográficos, e estimular o debate sobre problemas e possíveis soluções. Documentar, monitorar e avaliar as políticas de saúde é essencial para garantir que elas entreguem o que se propõem à sociedade.- Roads, transit, and the denseness of São Paulo's urban development(2021) ADRIANO BORGES FERREIRA DA COSTA; Zegras, P. Christopher; Zheng, SiqiTaking São Paulo as our case study, we present causal inference that the construction of avenues and arterial roads crossing the urbanized area and connecting suburban and peripheral neighborhoods have generated urban expansion, extending the city’s urban footprint of the fastest growing city in the world in the mid-20th century. Each kilometer of new avenues and arterial roads generated between 5% and 9% increase in the local urbanization rate between 1947 and 1997. On the other hand, investments in rail transit have promoted vertical neighborhoods, increasing the floor area ratio in settings nearby São Paulo's central area. And each additional kilometer of transit lines was responsible for increasing local FAR in between 2.5 and 4.75, meaning 10 to 19 square kilometers of additional built-up area. This is the first joint causal inference of urban roads and transit different impacts on horizontal and vertical urban development. Our results also confirm that transit investments have stimulated specialization of land uses in São Paulo by attracting more commercial buildings to central areas and stimulating residential real estate development in areas further away. In this paper we take advantage of the fact that several avenues and arterial roads in São Paulo were built using the free course left by urban rivers that were channeled as an exogenous source of variation for the application of an instrumental variable approach. Abandoned streetcar routes were used as an instrument for recent rail transit investments. Long difference regressions were used to estimate the causal effect of these different types of transport on the type of urbanization in São Paulo. Besides the contribution to the academic empirical literature on the interaction between transportation and land use, our findings have huge implications for “new urbanism” movements and among contemporary planning strategies that promote transit as a strategy to promote sustainable urbanization.
Working Paper Public investment and fiscal crisis in Brazil: finding culprits and solutions(2021) MARCO ANTONIO CESAR BONOMO; Frischtak, Cláudio R.; PAULO SERGIO OLIVEIRA RIBEIROWe investigate the relation between existing fiscal rules and investments in the context of a fiscal crisis in Brazil. We analyze existing fiscal rules at national and subnational levels, their enforcement, and proposed alternatives. Using narrative analysis, case studies, interviews, empirical estimation, and model simulations, we conclude that public investment is not closely related to fiscal rules in Brazil but is mainly determined by fiscal conditions both at national and subnational (state) levels. It is the steady increase of personnel expenditures in real terms that underlies the fiscal deterioration of the last decade, despite the existence of fiscal rules devised to prevent it. We argue that a constitutional rule limiting subnationals’ personnel expenditures to 50 percent of net revenues, triggering adjustment measures when reaching 47.5 percent, would be an effective instrument for subnational fiscal management, opening fiscal space for increasing investments. At the national level, despite the existence of several fiscal rules, the only effective fiscal anchor is the primary expenditure ceiling introduced in 2016, which has successfully curbed expenditures, including those of the judiciary and legislature.- Social Inequality from the perspective of the Racial Balance Index(2021) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, AlyssonBrazil still has a long way to go in facing its deep social problems. In order to offer a new perspective on Brazilian inequality, this paper proposes to use the Racial Balance Index to reveal where the greatest and worst advances in the direction of racial equity lie. With this index it is possible to identify and monitor racial inequality in socioeconomic variables over time considering the local racial distribution. Thus, this work analyzes racial imbalances, by state and region, present in high schooling, in the elderly population and in groups with higher incomes. As a result, there has been a significant improvement in the educational situation in recent years. The racial imbalance in the population with higher education has decreased considerably. However, this has not yet been reflected in an improvement in racial inequality in earnings and longevity.
Working Paper Under pressure: women's leadership during the COVID-19 crisis(2021) Bruce, Raphael; Cavgias, Alexsandros; Meloni, Luis; Remígio, MárioIn this paper, we study the effect of women's public leadership in times of crisis. More specifically, we use a regression discontinuity design in close mayoral races between male and female candidates to understand the impact of having a woman as a mayor during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We provide evidence that municipalities under female leadership had fewer deaths and hospitalizations per 100 thousand inhabitants and enforced more non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., mask usage and prohibition of gatherings). We also show that these results are not due to measures taken before the pandemic or other observable mayoral characteristics such as education or political preferences. Finally, we provide evidence that these effects are stronger in municipalities where Brazil's far-right president, who publicly disavowed the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions, had a higher vote share in the 2018 election. Overall, our findings provide credible causal evidence that female leaders outperformed male ones when dealing with a global policy issue. Moreover, our results also showcase the role local leaders can play in counteracting bad policies implemented by populist leaders at the national level.Working Paper The economic victims of violence: local exports during the Mexican drug war(2021) Gorrín, Jesús; Morales-Arilla, José; BERNARDO DE OLIVEIRA GUERRA RICCA- Subway Expansion, Jobs Accessibility and Home Value Appreciation in Four Global Cities: Considering Both Local and Network Effects(2021) ADRIANO BORGES FERREIRA DA COSTA; Ramos, Camila; Zhen, SiqiWe explore the potential of incorporating accessibility analysis in studying the impact of subway expansions on the real estate market. We first demonstrate that using increases in accessibility to firms as a continuous treatment variable instead of its binary alternative, the station-dummy approach, yields better goodness-of-fit in a quasi-experimental econometric analysis. We show that the dummy treatment variable consistently reported overestimated coefficients of impact for new subway stations. Furthermore, accessibility measures allow the exploration of impacts beyond the local effects around new subway stations, shedding light on network impact that has been largely overlooked in the literature. To provide greater external validity to our results, we apply the same analysis to the cities of Santiago (Chile), São Paulo (Brazil), Singapore, and Barcelona (Spain) and explore the common results. We argue that the integration of urban economics and transportation analysis can bring innovation to the empirical approach commonly adopted in the literature, and the use of accessibility measures in causal empirical studies on transportation impacts can produce more robust and comprehensive results and capture the nuanced spatial heterogeneity effects.
Working Paper The effects of public sector employment on household savings and labor supply(2021) MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS; Bettoni, Luis G.In many countries the structure of wages and the labor law legislation are completely different for public and private sector employees. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to study the effect of such differences on household savings and labor supply. To conduct our analysis, first we use microdata from two Brazilian household surveys to document that civil servants save and work significantly less than their counterparts in the private sector. Second, we use matched employer-employee micro-data from Brazil (RAIS) to document differences between the two sectors in terms of wage and unemployment risk. Then, we calibrate the model to be consistent with micro and macro evidence for Brazil. Our counterfactual exercises show that differences in wages characteristics and labor law legislation accounts for nearly 70\% of the gap in savings between civil servants and private sector workers, and 57\% of the gap in labor supply. In addition, we find that eliminating those differences can produce sizeable increase on aggregate savings, employment and welfare.- Desigualdades raciais no mercado de trabalho brasileiro e o papel da educacão(2021) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, AlyssonDo differences in wages between white and black workers arise because of discrimination or because of differences in productivity? This report tries to answer this questions by analyzing recent patterns in racial inequality in the Brazilian labor market and education. In addition to that, we also discuss some of the most important works on racial inequality. We show that racial differences in earnings are large and persistent, even when we consider workers with higher education or in the same occupational group. Using data from Brazil, we show that a considerable part of racial gaps in wages are due to differences in education related to years of schooling, quality of education, and majors attended in college. We also present data on recent trends in educational inequality. Access to higher education has improved fast in Brazil in the last decades, especially among black youth. However, there are still large differences in access between black and white children. Black students in higher education attend less prestigious courses than their white counterparts. Moreover, the performance of black teens in exams by the end of high school is worse than that of white students, and recent trends suggest that these differences in performance are widening.
Working Paper Vacinas: Historia, Lições Recentes e Atual Cobertura no Brasil(2021) LETICIA FARIA DE CARVALHO NUNES