Coleção de Artigos em Andamento [Working Papers]
URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3233
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Working Paper O comportamento do preço de IPOs ao redor do vencimento de lock-up(2014) Castro, Cristiano S.C. Monteiro de; ANDREA MARIA ACCIOLY FONSECA MINARDIÉ comum que se encontre em ofertas públicas iniciais de ações cláusula de lock-up. Essa cláusula restringe a venda de ações de insiders após o lançamento do IPO durante um período estabelecido. Existem evidências internacionais de que há aumento do volume de negociação e queda de preço das ações ao redor do vencimento do período de lock-up. Diferentemente de mercados acionários internacionais, em que há apenas um único período de lock-up, geralmente de 180 dias, no Brasil a BM&FBOVESPA exige lock-up de 180 dias para 40% do volume ofertado e 360 dias para os 60% de volume remanescente. O intuito desse trabalho é analisar o comportamento de preço e volume de negociação de IPOs brasileiros ao redor do vencimento dos dois lock-ups. Foram analisados o comportamento de 116 ofertas públicas iniciais entre 2004 e 2012. Verifica-se que existe tanto queda nos preços quanto aumento do volume de negociação ao redor dos vencimentos dos lock-ups, mas observa-se que, diferentemente das evidências internacionais, a queda de preço é menor quando há a presença de fundos de Private Equity e Venture Capital na estrutura societária dos IPOs,Working Paper Public investment and fiscal crisis in Brazil: finding culprits and solutions(2021) MARCO ANTONIO CESAR BONOMO; Frischtak, Cláudio R.; PAULO SERGIO OLIVEIRA RIBEIROWe investigate the relation between existing fiscal rules and investments in the context of a fiscal crisis in Brazil. We analyze existing fiscal rules at national and subnational levels, their enforcement, and proposed alternatives. Using narrative analysis, case studies, interviews, empirical estimation, and model simulations, we conclude that public investment is not closely related to fiscal rules in Brazil but is mainly determined by fiscal conditions both at national and subnational (state) levels. It is the steady increase of personnel expenditures in real terms that underlies the fiscal deterioration of the last decade, despite the existence of fiscal rules devised to prevent it. We argue that a constitutional rule limiting subnationals’ personnel expenditures to 50 percent of net revenues, triggering adjustment measures when reaching 47.5 percent, would be an effective instrument for subnational fiscal management, opening fiscal space for increasing investments. At the national level, despite the existence of several fiscal rules, the only effective fiscal anchor is the primary expenditure ceiling introduced in 2016, which has successfully curbed expenditures, including those of the judiciary and legislature.Working Paper Under pressure: women's leadership during the COVID-19 crisis(2021) Bruce, Raphael; Cavgias, Alexsandros; Meloni, Luis; Remígio, MárioIn this paper, we study the effect of women's public leadership in times of crisis. More specifically, we use a regression discontinuity design in close mayoral races between male and female candidates to understand the impact of having a woman as a mayor during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We provide evidence that municipalities under female leadership had fewer deaths and hospitalizations per 100 thousand inhabitants and enforced more non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., mask usage and prohibition of gatherings). We also show that these results are not due to measures taken before the pandemic or other observable mayoral characteristics such as education or political preferences. Finally, we provide evidence that these effects are stronger in municipalities where Brazil's far-right president, who publicly disavowed the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions, had a higher vote share in the 2018 election. Overall, our findings provide credible causal evidence that female leaders outperformed male ones when dealing with a global policy issue. Moreover, our results also showcase the role local leaders can play in counteracting bad policies implemented by populist leaders at the national level.