Coleção de Artigos em Andamento [Working Papers]
URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3233
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63 resultados
Resultados da Pesquisa
Working Paper Occupy government: democracy and the dynamics of personnel decisions and public sector performance(2019) Ferreira, Fernando V; Barbosa, KlenioWe study the causes and consequences of patronage in Brazilian cities since the country’s re democratization. Our data consist of the universe of local public sector employees merged with their party affiliations, and a dynamic regression discontinuity design is applied to deal with the endogeneity of patronage. Elections have consequences for patronage, with winning political coalitions increasing their shares of public sector workers and wages by 3-4 percentage points during a mayoral term, and also occupying civil servant jobs to perform key service-oriented tasks in education and public health. This type of patronage accounts for more than half of the dramatic increase in public sector political employment since the Brazilian re-democratization. The political occupation of government jobs is not associated with ideology, though. Instead, lack of accountability and rent-seeking are the primary driving forces, while reliance on intergovernmental transfers only increases patronage for smaller cities. Finally, we estimate the long-term consequences of this political occupation for fiscal outcomes conditions and for the quality of education and health care services. More political occupation does not affect the size of local governments, but it changes the composition of expenditures and public workers: the hiring of politically connected workers crowds out, practically one-to-one, non-affiliated teachers and doctors. The increased political occupation in Brazilian cities resulted in negative long term outcomes for local citizens in the form of less years of formal schooling and higher mortality rates.Working Paper Bank debit taxes: yield vs. disintermediation(2003) Kirilenko, Andrei; Summers, Victoria P.Working Paper Education and health: evaluating theories and evidence(2006) Cutler, David M.; Lleras-Muney, AdrianaThere is a large and persistent association between education and health. In this paper, we review what is known about this link. We first document the facts about the relationship between education and health. The education 'gradient' is found for both health behaviors and health status, though the former does not fully explain the latter. The effect of education increases with increasing years of education, with no evidence of a sheepskin effect. Nor are there differences between blacks and whites, or men and women. Gradients in behavior are biggest at young ages, and decline after age 50 or 60. We then consider differing reasons why education might be related to health. The obvious economic explanations - education is related to income or occupational choice - explain only a part of the education effect. We suggest that increasing levels of education lead to different thinking and decision-making patterns. The monetary value of the return to education in terms of health is perhaps half of the return to education on earnings, so policies that impact educational attainment could have a large effect on population health.Working Paper Reducing crime through environmental design: evidence from a randomized experiment of street lighting in New York City(2019) Chalfin, Aaron; Hansen, Benjamin; Lerner, Jason; Parker, LucieThis paper offers experimental evidence that crime can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but surprisingly understudied feature of the urban landscape – street lighting – and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary streetlights were randomly allocated to public housing developments from March through August 2016. We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in crime. After accounting for potential spatial spillovers, we find that the provision of street lights led, at a minimum, to a 36 percent reduction in nighttime outdoor index crimes.Working Paper Under pressure: women's leadership during the COVID-19 crisis(2021) Bruce, Raphael; Cavgias, Alexsandros; Meloni, Luis; Remígio, MárioIn this paper, we study the effect of women's public leadership in times of crisis. More specifically, we use a regression discontinuity design in close mayoral races between male and female candidates to understand the impact of having a woman as a mayor during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We provide evidence that municipalities under female leadership had fewer deaths and hospitalizations per 100 thousand inhabitants and enforced more non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., mask usage and prohibition of gatherings). We also show that these results are not due to measures taken before the pandemic or other observable mayoral characteristics such as education or political preferences. Finally, we provide evidence that these effects are stronger in municipalities where Brazil's far-right president, who publicly disavowed the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions, had a higher vote share in the 2018 election. Overall, our findings provide credible causal evidence that female leaders outperformed male ones when dealing with a global policy issue. Moreover, our results also showcase the role local leaders can play in counteracting bad policies implemented by populist leaders at the national level.Working Paper Political competition and the provision of early childhood education and care: evidence from Brazil(2022) Portella, Alysson Lorenzon; Tebaldi, RaquelThe objective of this paper is to investigate whether higher political competition induces the expansion of public early childhood education and care (ECEC) services using Brazil as a case study. Public ECEC services are provided mainly by Brazilian municipalities and although enrolment for children aged 0 to 3 is not mandatory, it has increased continuously in the last two decades, with large heterogeneity across municipalities. In addition, electoral rules in Brazil establishes a dual-ballot system only for municipalities with more than 200,000 registered voters. This provides an exogenous variation in political competition that enables us to evaluate its impact on ECEC provision through a regression discontinuity design. We find that average estimated municipal crèche net enrolment rates are around 3 percentage points larger in municipalities with the dual-ballot. ECEC expenditure levels are also higher in these municipalities.Working Paper Contando o atraso educacional: despesas e matrículas na educação primária de São Paulo, 1880-1920(2016) Colistete, Renato P.Este artigo analisa o desempenho educacional de São Paulo em meio às transformações econômicas e sociais do Brasil no final do século XIX e início do século XX. Ainda abaixo da média nacional em 1870, São Paulo alcançou nas décadas seguintes uma das maiores taxas de matrícula e tornou-se um dos líderes da educação primária no Brasil em 1920. O artigo apresenta novas séries de despesas e matrículas que, combinadas com indicadores que medem o esforço fiscal realizado, trazem à luz fatos pouco reconhecidos sobre as escolas primárias de São Paulo entre 1880 e 1920. Primeiro, o acesso ao ensino primário – em São Paulo e no Brasil – continuou extremamente restrito, pouco se diferenciando da situação de atraso em relação aos indicadores internacionais em meados do século XIX. Segundo, o excepcional crescimento das riquezas privadas e das receitas fiscais em São Paulo não foi acompanhado pelos gastos com educação primária. A discrepância entre o ritmo de crescimento das receitas públicas e das despesas com instrução primária levou a um resultado surpreendente: nas primeiras décadas da República em São Paulo, o esforço fiscal destinado à educação primária caiu para a metade do realizado durante os últimos 10 anos do Império.Working Paper Public investment and fiscal crisis in Brazil: finding culprits and solutions(2021) MARCO ANTONIO CESAR BONOMO; Frischtak, Cláudio R.; PAULO SERGIO OLIVEIRA RIBEIROWe investigate the relation between existing fiscal rules and investments in the context of a fiscal crisis in Brazil. We analyze existing fiscal rules at national and subnational levels, their enforcement, and proposed alternatives. Using narrative analysis, case studies, interviews, empirical estimation, and model simulations, we conclude that public investment is not closely related to fiscal rules in Brazil but is mainly determined by fiscal conditions both at national and subnational (state) levels. It is the steady increase of personnel expenditures in real terms that underlies the fiscal deterioration of the last decade, despite the existence of fiscal rules devised to prevent it. We argue that a constitutional rule limiting subnationals’ personnel expenditures to 50 percent of net revenues, triggering adjustment measures when reaching 47.5 percent, would be an effective instrument for subnational fiscal management, opening fiscal space for increasing investments. At the national level, despite the existence of several fiscal rules, the only effective fiscal anchor is the primary expenditure ceiling introduced in 2016, which has successfully curbed expenditures, including those of the judiciary and legislature.Working Paper Bad taxation: disintermediation and illiquidity in a bank account debits tax model(2006) Albuquerque, Pedro H.This paper uses a dynamic general equilibrium model to study the economic effects of bank account debits (BAD) taxation. Australia and various Latin American countries have levied or levy BAD taxes. Aspects such as financial disintermediation, market illiquidity, and impacts on dividend and interest rates are considered. Part of the BAD tax revenue may be fictitious, due to increased interest payments on government debt. The Brazilian BAD tax (CPMF) experience is evaluated. The empirical analysis confirms some theoretical predictions. Incidence base over GDP appears to be sensitive to the tax rate, possibly engendering a Laffer curve. The tax may also cause real interest rates to increase. Furthermore, the deadweight losses are relatively large, even if revenues are small. The theoretical and empirical results suggest that the BAD tax is not adequate for revenue collection.Working Paper The effects of public sector employment on household savings and labor supply(2021) MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS; Bettoni, Luis G.In many countries the structure of wages and the labor law legislation are completely different for public and private sector employees. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to study the effect of such differences on household savings and labor supply. To conduct our analysis, first we use microdata from two Brazilian household surveys to document that civil servants save and work significantly less than their counterparts in the private sector. Second, we use matched employer-employee micro-data from Brazil (RAIS) to document differences between the two sectors in terms of wage and unemployment risk. Then, we calibrate the model to be consistent with micro and macro evidence for Brazil. Our counterfactual exercises show that differences in wages characteristics and labor law legislation accounts for nearly 70\% of the gap in savings between civil servants and private sector workers, and 57\% of the gap in labor supply. In addition, we find that eliminating those differences can produce sizeable increase on aggregate savings, employment and welfare.