Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso | Graduação
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3244
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Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso Effects of educational assortative matching on the probability of divorce(2025) Roque, Bruno CaranThis study aims to measure the impact of different levels of tertiary education within a couple in the likelihood of divorce in Brazil. Brazil’s expansion of secondary and tertiary education over recent decades has reshaped the educational composition of couples, yet its implications for marital stability remain poorly understood. Using the nationally representative PNAD-Contínua rotating panel (2012-2019) with the help of the Ribas and Soares (2008) methodology for tracking individuals, we follow 452,447 married couples across five consecutive quarters. To isolate the effect of educational assortative matching, we estimate propensity scores with a rich set of demographic and economic covariates. A weighted linear-probability model on the matched sample yields an Average Treatment Effect on the Treated of –1.85 percentage points (p-value = 0.008). Considering the baseline divorce probability of 5.2% in our sample, this 1.9 percentage points reduction implies that couples whose schooling differs are about 37 % less likely to separate in the short-run than otherwise similar, education-matched couples. Because most mismatches should remain hypergamous (husband more educated), the result is consistent with gender-traditional norms that reward male economic advantage and dampen conflict. The short observation window, binary treatment definition, limitations on identifying divorce in the dataset and reliance on observable covariates restrict external validity, yet the finding challenges the common view that closing educational gaps will automatically strengthen marital stability. As gender parity in schooling widens, the protective effect of hypergamy may wane, underscoring the need for longer panels and gender-attitude measures in future research.Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso The Political Economy of Tyrannicide(2024) Schwartsman, David Motta NisencwajgIn this paper, we discuss tyrannicide as a rational political strategy and we evaluate its empirical effects on democratization. We first consider the murder of political leaders as a strategy inside basic selectorate competition, in selectorate theory, and we regard its equilibrium effects. We show that assassination risk can induce greater investment in public goods and pressure a reduction in coalition size and selectorate expansion. Then, using a staggered difference-indifferences strategy with Callaway and Santana’s reweighting estimator, we compare countries whose leaders survived murder attempts by chance with countries who leaders were killed. We observe evidence that the assassinations of dictators can favor democratization, increasing their countries polity-2 index by 3 to 4 points over time in the aggregate, with a lasting effect. We find weaker evidence for assassination of leaders in general.