Artigos em Andamento [Working Paper]
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3232
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Working Paper Occupy government: democracy and the dynamics of personnel decisions and public sector performance(2019) Ferreira, Fernando V; Barbosa, KlenioWe study the causes and consequences of patronage in Brazilian cities since the country’s re democratization. Our data consist of the universe of local public sector employees merged with their party affiliations, and a dynamic regression discontinuity design is applied to deal with the endogeneity of patronage. Elections have consequences for patronage, with winning political coalitions increasing their shares of public sector workers and wages by 3-4 percentage points during a mayoral term, and also occupying civil servant jobs to perform key service-oriented tasks in education and public health. This type of patronage accounts for more than half of the dramatic increase in public sector political employment since the Brazilian re-democratization. The political occupation of government jobs is not associated with ideology, though. Instead, lack of accountability and rent-seeking are the primary driving forces, while reliance on intergovernmental transfers only increases patronage for smaller cities. Finally, we estimate the long-term consequences of this political occupation for fiscal outcomes conditions and for the quality of education and health care services. More political occupation does not affect the size of local governments, but it changes the composition of expenditures and public workers: the hiring of politically connected workers crowds out, practically one-to-one, non-affiliated teachers and doctors. The increased political occupation in Brazilian cities resulted in negative long term outcomes for local citizens in the form of less years of formal schooling and higher mortality rates.Working Paper Bank debit taxes: yield vs. disintermediation(2003) Kirilenko, Andrei; Summers, Victoria P.Working Paper Education and health: evaluating theories and evidence(2006) Cutler, David M.; Lleras-Muney, AdrianaThere is a large and persistent association between education and health. In this paper, we review what is known about this link. We first document the facts about the relationship between education and health. The education 'gradient' is found for both health behaviors and health status, though the former does not fully explain the latter. The effect of education increases with increasing years of education, with no evidence of a sheepskin effect. Nor are there differences between blacks and whites, or men and women. Gradients in behavior are biggest at young ages, and decline after age 50 or 60. We then consider differing reasons why education might be related to health. The obvious economic explanations - education is related to income or occupational choice - explain only a part of the education effect. We suggest that increasing levels of education lead to different thinking and decision-making patterns. The monetary value of the return to education in terms of health is perhaps half of the return to education on earnings, so policies that impact educational attainment could have a large effect on population health.Working Paper Reducing crime through environmental design: evidence from a randomized experiment of street lighting in New York City(2019) Chalfin, Aaron; Hansen, Benjamin; Lerner, Jason; Parker, LucieThis paper offers experimental evidence that crime can be successfully reduced by changing the situational environment that potential victims and offenders face. We focus on a ubiquitous but surprisingly understudied feature of the urban landscape – street lighting – and report the first experimental evidence on the effect of street lighting on crime. Through a unique public partnership in New York City, temporary streetlights were randomly allocated to public housing developments from March through August 2016. We find evidence that communities that were assigned more lighting experienced sizable reductions in crime. After accounting for potential spatial spillovers, we find that the provision of street lights led, at a minimum, to a 36 percent reduction in nighttime outdoor index crimes.Working Paper Contando o atraso educacional: despesas e matrículas na educação primária de São Paulo, 1880-1920(2016) Colistete, Renato P.Este artigo analisa o desempenho educacional de São Paulo em meio às transformações econômicas e sociais do Brasil no final do século XIX e início do século XX. Ainda abaixo da média nacional em 1870, São Paulo alcançou nas décadas seguintes uma das maiores taxas de matrícula e tornou-se um dos líderes da educação primária no Brasil em 1920. O artigo apresenta novas séries de despesas e matrículas que, combinadas com indicadores que medem o esforço fiscal realizado, trazem à luz fatos pouco reconhecidos sobre as escolas primárias de São Paulo entre 1880 e 1920. Primeiro, o acesso ao ensino primário – em São Paulo e no Brasil – continuou extremamente restrito, pouco se diferenciando da situação de atraso em relação aos indicadores internacionais em meados do século XIX. Segundo, o excepcional crescimento das riquezas privadas e das receitas fiscais em São Paulo não foi acompanhado pelos gastos com educação primária. A discrepância entre o ritmo de crescimento das receitas públicas e das despesas com instrução primária levou a um resultado surpreendente: nas primeiras décadas da República em São Paulo, o esforço fiscal destinado à educação primária caiu para a metade do realizado durante os últimos 10 anos do Império.Working Paper Reconciling financial and social performance through heterogeneous business models: an empirical study of impact-oriented investors(2017) SERGIO GIOVANETTI LAZZARINI; SANDRO CABRAL; Pongeluppe, Leandro Simões; Ferreira, Luciana Carvalho de Mesquita; Rotondaro, AngélicaWorking Paper A macro-financial analysis of the corporate bond market(2018) Dewachter, Hans; Iania, Leonardo; Lemke, Wolfgang; Lyrio, Marco Túlio PereiraWe assess the contribution of economic and Önancial factors in the determination of euro area corporate bond spreads over the period 2001-2015. The proposed multi-market, no arbitrage a¢ ne term structure model is based on the methodology proposed by Dewachter, Iania, Lyrio, and Perea (2015). We model jointly the ërisk-free curveí, measured by overnight index swap (OIS) rates, and the corporate yield curves for two rating classes (A and BBB). The model includes four spanned and six unspanned factors. We Önd that, in general, both economic (real activity and ináation) and Önancial factors (proxying risk aversion, áight to liquidity and general Önancial market stress) play a signiÖcant role in the determination of the spanned factors and hence in the dynamics of the risk-free yield curve and corporate bond spreads. Across the risk-free OIS curve, macroeconomic and Önancial factors are each responsible on average for explaining 30 and 65 percent of yield varation, respectively. For A and BBB-rated corporate debt, the selected Önancial variables explain on average 50 percent of the variation in corporate spreads during the last decade.Working Paper Estimando os gastos privados com educação no brasil(2011) NAERCIO AQUINO MENEZES FILHO; Nuñez, Diana FeketeEste artigo estima, pela primeira vez na literatura, os gastos totais privados com educação no Brasil, utilizando os micro-dados de gastos das famílias brasileiras da Pesquisa de Orçamentos Familiares para os anos de 2002/2003 e 2008/2009. Verificamos que as famílias brasileiras gastaram 1,9% do PIB com educação em 2002/03 e 1,3% em 2008/09. Uma comparação com outros países mostra que os gastos privados e públicos são maiores que a média dos países da OCDE. Os gastos com educação não estão relacionados com o desempenho escolar médio dos países, medido pelos últimos resultados do exame internacional PISAWorking Paper Modelo Multi-Estado de Markov em Cartões de Crédito(2008) RINALDO ARTES; Régis, Daniel EvangelistaModelos multi-estado de Markov são utilizados na área médica para estimar as probabilidades de transição entre, por exemplo, vários estágios de uma doença, podendo o paciente recuperar-se ou morrer. O principal interesse deste trabalho é analisar a aplicação do modelo multiestado de Markov na área de risco associado ao uso de cartões de crédito, aproveitando as características de transições entre diversos estados de relacionamento entre os clientes e as instituições ao longo do tempo e, com isso, gerar modelos de escore para diversos fins. Modelos de regressão logística também são estimados a fim de comparar os resultados com os obtidos pelo modelo multi-estado de Markov.Working Paper A crise política de 2005: Causas estruturais e conjunturais que a explicam(2008) CARLOS ALBERTO FURTADO DE MELO