Artigos Acadêmicos e Noticiosos
URI permanente desta comunidadehttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3226
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Artigo Científico Neonatal mortality prediction with routinely collected data: a machine learning approach(2021) ANDRE FILIPE DE MORAES BATISTA; Diniz, Carmen S. G.; Bonilha, Eliana A.; Kawachi, Ichiro; Chiavegatto Filho, Alexandre D. P.Background: Recent decreases in neonatal mortality have been slower than expected for most countries. This study aims to predict the risk of neonatal mortality using only data routinely available from birth records in the largest city of the Americas. Methods: A probabilistic linkage of every birth record occurring in the municipality of São Paulo, Brazil, between 2012 e 2017 was performed with the death records from 2012 to 2018 (1,202,843 births and 447,687 deaths), and a total of 7282 neonatal deaths were identified (a neonatal mortality rate of 6.46 per 1000 live births). Births from 2012 and 2016 (N = 941,308; or 83.44% of the total) were used to train five different machine learning algorithms, while births occurring in 2017 (N = 186,854; or 16.56% of the total) were used to test their predictive performance on new unseen data. Results: The best performance was obtained by the extreme gradient boosting trees (XGBoost) algorithm, with a very high AUC of 0.97 and F1-score of 0.55. The 5% births with the highest predicted risk of neonatal death included more than 90% of the actual neonatal deaths. On the other hand, there were no deaths among the 5% births with the lowest predicted risk. There were no significant differences in predictive performance for vulnerable subgroups. The use of a smaller number of variables (WHO’s five minimum perinatal indicators) decreased overall performance but the results still remained high (AUC of 0.91). With the addition of only three more variables, we achieved the same predictive performance (AUC of 0.97) as using all the 23 variables originally available from the Brazilian birth records. Conclusion: Machine learning algorithms were able to identify with very high predictive performance the neonatal mortality risk of newborns using only routinely collected data.Artigo Científico Wildfire-sourced fine particulate matter and preterm birth risks in Brazil: A nationwide population-based cohort study(2024) Zhang, Yiwen; Huang, Wenzhong; Xu, Rongbin; Ye, Tingting; Chen, Gongbo; Yue, Xu; Coêl , Micheline de Sousa Zanotti Stagliorio; Saldiva, Paulo Hilario Nascimento; Song, Jiangning; Guo, Yuming; Li, ShanshanWildfire-specific particulate matter with diameters ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is the key component of wildfire smoke, with potentially higher toxicity than PM2.5 from other sources. In this nationwide population-based cohort study, we included 22,163,195 births from Brazil during 2010–2019. Daily wildfire-specific PM2.5 was estimated through the chemical transport model. Time-varying Cox proportional hazards models were used to characterize the exposure-time-response (E-T-R) relationship between weekly wildfire-specific PM2.5 exposure and preterm birth (PTB) risks, followed by subgroup analyses. A 10 µg/m3 increment in wildfire-specific PM2.5 was associated with a hazard ratio of 1.047 (95 % confidence interval [CI]: 1.032–1.063) for PTB. Stronger associations between wildfire-specific PM2.5 and PTB were observed during earlier pregnancy, among female infants, and pregnant women < 18 years old, in ethnic minorities, with a length of education ≥ 11 years, from low-income or high temperature municipalities, and residing in North/Northeast regions. An estimated 1.47 % (95 % CI: 1.01 %–1.94 %) of PTBs were attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 in Brazil, increasing from 2010 to 2019. The PTBs attributable to wildfire-specific PM2.5 surpassed those attributed to non-wildfire PM2.5 (0.31 %, 95% CI: 0.09 %–0.57 %). Wildfire emerged as a critical source contributing to the PM2.5-linked PTBs. Prioritized fire management and emission control strategies are warranted for PTB prevention.Artigo Científico Digital Platform Ecosystems and Conglomerate Mergers: A Review of the Brazilian Experience(2022) Zingales, Nicolo; Renzetti, Bruno PolonioThis paper highlights some of the key challenges for the Brazilian merger control regime in dealing with mergers involving digital platform ecosystems (DPEs). After a quick introduction to DPEs, we illustrate how conglomerate effects that are raised by such mergers remain largely unaddressed in the current landscape for merger control in Brazil. The paper is divided in four sections. First, we introduce the reader to the framework for merger control in Brazil. Second, we identify the possible theories of harm related to conglomerate mergers, and elaborate on the way in which their application may be affected by the context of DPEs. Third, we conduct a review of previous mergers involving DPEs in Brazil, aiming to identify the theories of harm employed (and those that could have been explored) in each case. Fourth and finally, we summarize and results and suggest adaptations to the current regime, advancing proposals for a more consistent and predictable analysis.Artigo Científico The role of police contact and neighborhood experiences on legal socialization: Longitudinal evidence from adolescents in Brazil(2021) Piccirillo, Debora; García-Sánchez, Efraín; MARIANA CHIES SANTIAGO SANTOS; Gomes, Aline MizutaniThe legal socialization framework emphasizes the impor tance of adolescents’ encounters with police. We exam ine how different types of police contact and neighbor hood experiences are linked to the legal socialization pro cess among adolescents living in São Paulo, Brazil. Draw ing on 669 participants across three waves of panel data from the São Paulo Legal Socialization Study, results from the multilevel longitudinal model revealed that within person increases in vicarious police contact were linked to a decrease in police legitimacy over time. Exploratory analyses using a multilevel mediation model indicated that the observed negative effect of vicarious police contact was mediated by evaluations of police procedural justice. As for the between-person effects, voluntary police contact posi tively predicted police legitimacy over time. However, the effects of vicarious police contact and violent police contact were mediated by police procedural justice. Additionally, police legitimacy decreased for people who had more expo sure to violence and lower levels of fear of crime. The study revealed that the nature of police contact and levels of expo sure to violence can have important effects on adolescents’ perceptions of police legitimacy, even after accounting for procedural justice.- Opening the “black box” of food safety policy implementation: the efficiency-enhancing role of a private meso-institution(2023) Oliveira, Gustavo Magalhães de; BRUNO VARELLA MIRANDA; Saes, Maria Sylvia Macchione; Martino, GaetanoThere is continuing interest in how rules created at the “institutional environment” level influence the perfor mance of food safety policies. The influence of institutional rules on the behavior of farms and firms may vary widely depending on how strongly incentives reach potential users. This article assesses how the creation of a private meso-institution (i.e., Conseleite) affects the implementation of food safety guidelines in the Brazilian dairy industry. We use a dataset that has laboratory analyses of milk from 18 out of the 27 Brazilian states over a period that goes from 2006 to 2014. We show that the creation of Conseleite has led to an increased effectiveness of implementation of the Normative Instruction 51, which sets indicators and basic parameters of milk quality in Brazil. Specifically, the creation of Conseleite in the Brazilian state of Mato Grosso do Sul led to a decrease in the low-quality index related to the bacterial contamination of milk. In turn, we find that Conseleite played a limited role in raising the values of the high-quality milk index. Our conclusions highlight the fundamental role of meso institutions in bridging the gap between the “institutional environment” level and the “governance” level. This study sheds light on a potential policy implementation path for other developing and emerging countries in the dairy industry, which is marked by frequent food safety scandals.