Misvalutation e economia comportamental: empresas brasileiras pré e pós pandemia Covid - 19
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Faro, José Heleno
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2023
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Este estudo tem como principal objetivo avaliar como a pandemia gerada pelo Covid 19 afetou a precificação de ativos brasileiros. Para isto são utilizados conceitos da economia
clássica e da economia comportamental. A economia clássica considera que os preços dos
ativos refletem toda informação pública e privada disponível. Além desta premissa, também
considera que os agentes econômicos possuem tempo e recursos de forma que isto não seja um
fator limitante na utilização da informação em benefício próprio ou para otimizar a gestão de
uma carteira de investimentos. Desta forma anomalias no preço de ativos, como observadas em
2000 com a crise da internet ou em 2008 com a crise do subprime não deveriam ocorrer, pois
os ativos estariam bem precificados, todavia, além das crises citadas, outras anomalias também
ocorreram. Neste cenário que a economia comportamental passa a ser estudada de forma a
complementar modelos tradicionais. A pandemia causada pelo Covid-19 iniciada em 2020 além
da crise sanitária, também causou stress financeiro. Tendo o período pré-pandemia
representado por 2019 e pós pandemia representado por 2021, este estudo compara a
precificação de ações brasileiras dos setores de aviação, financeiro e varejo. A hipótese inicial
é que o stress causado pela pandemia geraria pessimismo no mercado financeiro e ações
passariam a ser precificadas com tendência de subavaliação. O resultado obtido confirma a
hipótese inicial, uma vez que ações supervalorizadas passaram a ser bem precificadas ou
subavaliadas.
The main objective of this study is to evaluate how the pandemic generated by Covid 19 affected the pricing of Brazilian assets, using concepts from classical economics and behavioral economics. Classical economics considers that asset prices reflect all available public and privileged information. Besides this premise, it also considers that economic agents have time and resources so this is not a limiting factor in the use of information for their own benefit or to optimize the management of an investment portfolio. Thus, anomalies in asset prices, as observed in 2000 the Internet crisis or in 2008 the subprime crisis should not occur, because the assets would be well priced. However, besides these crises, other anomalies have also occurred. It is in this scenario that behavioral economics begins to be studied to complement traditional models. The pandemic caused by Covid-19 started in 2020, besides the health crisis, also caused financial stress. With the pre-pandemic period represented by 2019 and the post-pandemic period represented by 2021, this study compares the pricing of Brazilian stocks in the aviation, financial, and retail sectors. The initial hypothesis is that the stress caused by the pandemic would generate pessimism in the market and stocks would be priced with a tendency to undervalue. The result obtained confirms the initial hypothesis since overvalued stocks became well priced or undervalued.
The main objective of this study is to evaluate how the pandemic generated by Covid 19 affected the pricing of Brazilian assets, using concepts from classical economics and behavioral economics. Classical economics considers that asset prices reflect all available public and privileged information. Besides this premise, it also considers that economic agents have time and resources so this is not a limiting factor in the use of information for their own benefit or to optimize the management of an investment portfolio. Thus, anomalies in asset prices, as observed in 2000 the Internet crisis or in 2008 the subprime crisis should not occur, because the assets would be well priced. However, besides these crises, other anomalies have also occurred. It is in this scenario that behavioral economics begins to be studied to complement traditional models. The pandemic caused by Covid-19 started in 2020, besides the health crisis, also caused financial stress. With the pre-pandemic period represented by 2019 and the post-pandemic period represented by 2021, this study compares the pricing of Brazilian stocks in the aviation, financial, and retail sectors. The initial hypothesis is that the stress caused by the pandemic would generate pessimism in the market and stocks would be priced with a tendency to undervalue. The result obtained confirms the initial hypothesis since overvalued stocks became well priced or undervalued.
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