Contratos de Impacto Social: Análise de fatores que afetam a sua evolução para as fases de lançamento, implementação e resultado
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2023
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Diversos países têm implementado colaborações público-privadas, que são uma das
formas para se executar e financiar programas do setor social, geralmente buscando
resultados socioambientais, sendo vários destes resultados acordados previamente e
posteriormente mensurados. Um tipo de colaboração público-privada são os Contratos de
Impacto Social (CIS) ou Outcome Based Contracts (OBCs), que consistem em um acordo
contratual entre um ou mais investidores privados, setor público e outros stakeholders,
visando o financiamento de um projeto com impacto socioambiental. Os investidores
privados fornecem financiamento inicial e assumem o risco financeiro. Se os resultados
acordados forem alcançados, o setor público reembolsa os investidores com uma taxa de
retorno predeterminada. No entanto, vários desses contratos, apesar de inicialmente
concebidos, não são implementados ou, se implementados, podem não atingir os
resultados pretendidos. Nesse âmbito, o objetivo deste estudo é entender que fatores
contribuem com o avanço dos CIS para além da fase de design, ou seja, para as fases de
implementação e conclusão. Foram estabelecidas hipóteses sobre os fatores que afetam a
evolução desses contratos, quais sejam: Contratos de impacto social em países com maior
PIB têm mais probabilidade de avanço nas etapas de design, implementação e conclusão
(H1); Em países que já possuem CIS lançados, os contratos terão uma maior
probabilidade de avanço nas etapas de design, implementação e conclusão (H2);
Contratos com prestadores de serviço que têm natureza sem fins lucrativos têm mais
probabilidade de avanço nas etapas de design, implementação e conclusão (H3); e
Contratos com investidores que têm natureza sem fins lucrativos têm mais probabilidade
de avanço nas etapas de design, implementação e conclusão (H4). Para testar essas
hipóteses, o estudo utilizou as metodologias Logit Binomial e Binomial Negativa. Os
resultados apontam que, em ambas metodologias, a H3 é a única hipótese suportada. Ou
seja, somente a H3 teve seu teste estatisticamente significante em múltiplas
especificações, logo, sugerindo um efeito robusto. As demais variáveis são parcialmente
rejeitadas, ou seja, são rejeitadas em algumas especificações, ainda que suportadas em
outras. É possível inferir, portanto, que o envolvimento de prestadores de serviço sem
finas lucrativos é importante para o avanço dos contratos.
Several countries have been implementing public-private collaborations, which are one of the methods for executing and financing programs within the social sector. These collaborations generally aim to achieve socio-environmental outcomes, many of which are pre-agreed upon and subsequently measured. One type of public-private collaboration is Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), also known as Outcome-Based Contracts (OBCs). These entail a contractual agreement between one or more private investors, the public sector, and other stakeholders, with the goal of financing a project with socio-environmental impact. Private investors provide initial funding and assume financial risk. If the agreed upon outcomes are achieved, the public sector reimburses the investors with a predetermined rate of return. However, several of these contracts, even when initially designed, are not implemented, or if implemented, may fail to achieve the intended results. Within this context, the objective of this study is to comprehend the factors that contribute to the advancement of SIBs beyond the design phase, namely into the phases of implementation and conclusion. Hypotheses have been established concerning the factors that affect the progression of these contracts, as follows: Social impact contracts in countries with higher GDP are more likely to progress through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H1); In countries where SIBs have already been launched, the contracts are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H2); Contracts involving service providers of a nonprofit nature are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H3); and Contracts involving investors of a nonprofit nature are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H4). To test these hypotheses, the study employed the methodologies of Binomial Logit and Negative Binomial. The results indicate that, in both methodologies, H3 is the only hypothesis supported. In other words, only H3 had its statistical test found to be significant across multiple specifications, thus suggesting a robust effect. The other variables are partially rejected, meaning they are rejected in some specifications while supported in others. It is possible to infer, therefore, that the involvement of nonprofit service providers is important for the advancement of contracts.
Several countries have been implementing public-private collaborations, which are one of the methods for executing and financing programs within the social sector. These collaborations generally aim to achieve socio-environmental outcomes, many of which are pre-agreed upon and subsequently measured. One type of public-private collaboration is Social Impact Bonds (SIBs), also known as Outcome-Based Contracts (OBCs). These entail a contractual agreement between one or more private investors, the public sector, and other stakeholders, with the goal of financing a project with socio-environmental impact. Private investors provide initial funding and assume financial risk. If the agreed upon outcomes are achieved, the public sector reimburses the investors with a predetermined rate of return. However, several of these contracts, even when initially designed, are not implemented, or if implemented, may fail to achieve the intended results. Within this context, the objective of this study is to comprehend the factors that contribute to the advancement of SIBs beyond the design phase, namely into the phases of implementation and conclusion. Hypotheses have been established concerning the factors that affect the progression of these contracts, as follows: Social impact contracts in countries with higher GDP are more likely to progress through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H1); In countries where SIBs have already been launched, the contracts are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H2); Contracts involving service providers of a nonprofit nature are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H3); and Contracts involving investors of a nonprofit nature are more likely to advance through the stages of design, implementation, and conclusion (H4). To test these hypotheses, the study employed the methodologies of Binomial Logit and Negative Binomial. The results indicate that, in both methodologies, H3 is the only hypothesis supported. In other words, only H3 had its statistical test found to be significant across multiple specifications, thus suggesting a robust effect. The other variables are partially rejected, meaning they are rejected in some specifications while supported in others. It is possible to infer, therefore, that the involvement of nonprofit service providers is important for the advancement of contracts.
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CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::DEMOGRAFIA::POLITICA PUBLICA E POPULACAO
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS