Forecasting accuracy of industrial sales with endogeneity in firm-level data

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dc.contributor.authorADRIANA BRUSCATO BORTOLUZZO
dc.contributor.authorDANNY PIMENTEL CLARO
dc.coverage.paisNão Informadopt_BR
dc.date.accessioned2022-08-09T13:28:59Z
dc.date.available2022-08-09T13:28:59Z
dc.date.issued2021
dc.description.otherOver- or underestimating sales is detrimental to marketing and sales efforts as well as inventories and cash flow management. Thus the purpose of this investigation is to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of three competing multivariate time-series models that take into account existing endogeneity in monthly firm-level data from an industrial manufacturing firm. Two-stage least squares transfer function model including instrumental variables, Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model and Bayesian VAR are estimated and their forecasting performances are compared to an autoregressive moving average model (benchmark). using out of sample error measures. According to forecasting accuracy measures, models that take into account endogeneity outperform the benchmark. They also performed better when applied to data that includes the 2008 financial crisis, reinforcing the use of these proposed models in turbulent times to forecast sales. Only a little effort has been made in companies to model the endogeneity of the data, however great are the gains in sales forecasting with such statistical tools. Whatever the company, these models can be applied since there exists historical data. Previous literature in management has resorted to standard time series forecasting techniques, but has not employed models that accommodate potential endogeneity among the explanatory variables in firm level data. Marketing effort affects sales as well as managers’ decisions regarding marketing investments and project proposals can also be affected by sales.pt_BR
dc.format.extent42 - 52pt_BR
dc.format.mediumDigitalpt_BR
dc.identifier.issn2456-4559pt_BR
dc.identifier.issue4pt_BR
dc.identifier.urihttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3917
dc.identifier.volume6pt_BR
dc.language.isoInglêspt_BR
dc.publisherNão informadopt_BR
dc.relation.ispartofInternational Journal of Business Marketing and Managementpt_BR
dc.rights.licenseO INSPER E ESTE REPOSITÓRIO NÃO DETÊM OS DIREITOS DE USO E REPRODUÇÃO DOS CONTEÚDOS AQUI REGISTRADOS. É RESPONSABILIDADE DOS USUÁRIOS INDIVIDUAIS VERIFICAR OS USOS PERMITIDOS NA FONTE ORIGINAL, RESPEITANDO-SE OS DIREITOS DE AUTOR OU EDITORpt_BR
dc.subject.keywordsIndustrial salespt_BR
dc.subject.keywordsForecastingpt_BR
dc.subject.keywordsEndogeneitypt_BR
dc.subject.keywordsTime seriespt_BR
dc.titleForecasting accuracy of industrial sales with endogeneity in firm-level datapt_BR
dc.typejournal article
dspace.entity.typePublication
local.identifier.sourceUrihttp://www.ijbmm.com/Vol6-issue4.html
local.subject.cnpqCiências Sociais Aplicadaspt_BR
local.typeArtigo Científicopt_BR
relation.isAuthorOfPublicationccfd47d5-bd80-4464-98ce-629abb672e3d
relation.isAuthorOfPublication4d0421e0-4cc8-4fb3-846a-581a48c752f5
relation.isAuthorOfPublication.latestForDiscovery4d0421e0-4cc8-4fb3-846a-581a48c752f5
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