Instrumentos financeiros no setor do agronegócio: uma análise sob a perspectiva de vieses comportamentais
N/D
Autores
Tinôco, Ollavo Eugênio Dennys Wyndi do Praddo Queiroz
Orientador
Co-orientadores
Citações na Scopus
Tipo de documento
Dissertação
Data
2022
Resumo
Devido à instabilidade e ao dinamismo do mercado agropecuário, a
gestão de risco é fator dominante para a sobrevivência dos envolvidos nesse
tipo de atividade. Assim, como forma de proteger os agentes negociadores de
commodities agrícolas, o mercado de capitais passou a ofertar contratos
ligados ao agronegócio. Tendo em vista a falta de referências que tratem do
agronegócio em termos de economia comportamental, este presente estudo
tem como objetivo mensurar e prever a influência dos vieses comportamentais
de loss aversion e status quo na decisão de produtores rurais ao utilizarem
ferramentas financeiras de proteção de preços por meio da aplicação de
questionários baseados no modelo SurveyMonkey, que tem como finalidade de
construir uma base de dados primária e inédita, com uma amostra
representativa. Ao todo, foram respondidos 430 questionários que, após
tratamento e limpeza, resultaram em 276 respostas para compor a base
mediante ao perfil desejado. Com a base estabelecida, regressões logísticas
foram realizadas em R, utilizando o pacote de modelos lineares generalizados
GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape).
Pode-se concluir que a maior influência aparente se deu em virtude ao
desconhecimento técnico sobre o uso de derivativos. Além disso, a relevância
estatística da aversão ao risco indica que quanto maior a aversão ao risco,
maiores as chances de o produtor utilizar derivativos para proteção de preços,
indicando que a aversão ao risco reforça a necessidade de não participar da
volatilidade do mercado. Espera-se que a presente pesquisa possa contribuir
com um modelo de soluções para aumentar a utilização dos instrumentos
financeiros (hedge), melhorando assim a gestão integrada dos riscos dos
produtores rurais, perpetuando a longevidade à este tipo de negócio.
Due to the instability and dynamism of the agricultural market, risk management is a dominant factor for the survival of those involved in this type of activity. Thus, as a way of protecting agents negotiating agricultural commodities, the capital market began to offer contracts related to agribusiness. In view of the lack of references dealing with agribusiness in terms of behavioral economics, this present study aimed to measure and predict the influence of behavioral biases of loss aversion and status quo on the decision of rural producers when using financial tools for price protection through the application of questionnaires based on the SurveyMonkey model, created with the purpose of building a primary and unprecedented database, with a representative sample. In all, 430 questionnaires were answered which, after treatment and cleaning, resulted in 276 responses to compose the base according to the desired profile. With the base established, logistic regressions were performed in R, using the generalized linear models package GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape). It can be concluded that the greatest apparent influence was due to the technical lack of knowledge about the use of derivatives. In addition, the statistical relevance of risk aversion indicates that the greater the risk aversion, the greater the chances of the producer using derivatives to protect prices, indicating that risk aversion reinforces the need not to participate in market volatility. It is expected that the present research can contribute with a model of solutions to increase the use of financial instruments (hedge), thus improving the integrated management of the risks of rural producers, perpetuating the longevity of this type of business.
Due to the instability and dynamism of the agricultural market, risk management is a dominant factor for the survival of those involved in this type of activity. Thus, as a way of protecting agents negotiating agricultural commodities, the capital market began to offer contracts related to agribusiness. In view of the lack of references dealing with agribusiness in terms of behavioral economics, this present study aimed to measure and predict the influence of behavioral biases of loss aversion and status quo on the decision of rural producers when using financial tools for price protection through the application of questionnaires based on the SurveyMonkey model, created with the purpose of building a primary and unprecedented database, with a representative sample. In all, 430 questionnaires were answered which, after treatment and cleaning, resulted in 276 responses to compose the base according to the desired profile. With the base established, logistic regressions were performed in R, using the generalized linear models package GAMLSS (Generalized Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape). It can be concluded that the greatest apparent influence was due to the technical lack of knowledge about the use of derivatives. In addition, the statistical relevance of risk aversion indicates that the greater the risk aversion, the greater the chances of the producer using derivatives to protect prices, indicating that risk aversion reinforces the need not to participate in market volatility. It is expected that the present research can contribute with a model of solutions to increase the use of financial instruments (hedge), thus improving the integrated management of the risks of rural producers, perpetuating the longevity of this type of business.
Palavras-chave
Commodities Agrícolas; Derivativos; Loss Aversion; Risk Aversion; Status Quo; Agricultural Commodities; Derivatives; Loss Aversion; Risk Aversion; Status quo
Titulo de periódico
URL da fonte
Título de Livro
URL na Scopus
Idioma
Português
Notas
Membros da banca
Área do Conhecimento CNPQ
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIAS AGRARIA E DOS RECURSOS NATURAIS::ECONOMIA AGRARIA