Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/1494
Type: Dissertação
Title: Simulação de fusão em políticas de competição: aplicação do método de Björnerstedt e Verboven ao mercado brasileiro de computadores pessoais
Authors: Cornejo, Fabian Gonzalo Fierro
Examination board: Mello, Joao Manoel Pinho
Barbosa, Klenio De Souza
Advisor: Moita, Rodrigo Menon Simoes
Publication Date: 2015
Original Abstract: Este trabalho propõe-se a aplicar um modelo de simulação de fusão, com o intuito de estudar o impacto de efeitos unilaterais e coordenados, resultantes de atos de concentração, em um determinado setor da economia brasileira, assim como fornecer informações indicativas sobre as condições de concorrência desse setor. Para tanto, o método empregado foi elaborado por Björnerstedt e Verboven, escolhido por dispor de uma rotina econométrica acessível (desenvolvida em Stata, conhecida por “pacote mergersim”), munido de procedimentos preparados para serem reproduzidos e que geram resultados passíveis de testes (ou seja, aplicando-se a mesma técnica e mesmo conjunto de dados, obtêm-se os mesmos resultados) e concebido com premissas para estimação da demanda e oferta claramente especificadas. O setor da economia brasileira escolhido para desenvolver esta análise foi o mercado brasileiro de computadores pessoais, em razão da disponibilidade e nível de detalhe dos dados obtidos, sendo um setor oligopolista dinâmico e com histórico de ocorrência de atos de concentração. Dedicamos boa parte deste estudo a descrever e reproduzir os procedimentos apresentados por Björnerstedt e Verboven em seu working paper “Merger Simulation with Nested Logit Demand: Implementation using Stata”, a partir de exercícios de simulação aplicados em um exemplo hipotético de fusão entre duas empresas líderes do setor analisado. Tal exercício foi implementado em Stata, utilizando os comandos e instruções do pacote mergersim, que esboçam as etapas que fundamentam a execução de uma simulação de fusão, a começar pela: (i) especificação e estimação da demanda, para o qual foi utilizado um modelo aggregated nested logit em 2 níveis; (ii) seguido da especificação do modelo de competição, que assume o modelo de oligopólio na qual as firmas competem a la Bertrand-Nash; (iii) e, por default, assumem que os custos marginais das firmas são constantes. Os resultados gerados por esses exercícios forneceram evidências quantitativas do alcance dos efeitos unilaterais e coordenados de atos de concentração econômica no setor brasileiro de computadores pessoais (através das variações apresentadas por indicadores como preços, market shares, excedente do consumidor, índice de Herfindahl-Hirschman, taxas de concentração de mercado, entre outros). Além disso, forneceram informações indicativas sobre as condições de concorrência desse mercado (através das elasticidades-preço da demanda e mark-ups, por exemplo). Observou-se indícios de um setor moderadamente concentrado, porém bastante competitivo e, embora registre por volta de 60% do market share em posse das quatro maiores empresas, vem apresentando mudanças no poder de mercado das empresas líderes nos últimos anos.
Keywords in original language : Organização industrial empírica
simulação de fusão
nested logit model
modelo de competição Bertrand-Nash multiprodutos
mercados oligopolistas de produtos diferenciados
pacote mergersim
Empirical industrial organization,
merger simulation
nested logit model
Bertrand-Nash multiproduct competition
oligopolistic differentiated products markets
mergersim package
Abstract: This paper proposes to implement a merger simulation model, in order to evaluate the impact of unilateral and coordinated effects − resulting from that merger − on a particular industry of Brazilian economy, as well as providing indicative information on the competitive structure prevailing on that industry. Therefore, we’ve applied a merger simulation model which was developed by Björnerstedt and Verboven. We’ve chose it because of his handy econometric routine (developed in Stata, known as "mergersim package"), for providing procedures and results that can be replicated and tested and its demand and supply assumptions are clearly laid out (explicit assumptions). We’ve picked PC Brazilian market to develop our analysis, because of the availability of data in reasonable detail about that industry and it is dynamic oligopolistic industry that reported the occurrence of merger and acquisitions cases. We have committed a significant part of this paper to describe and performing Björnerstedt and Verboven’s method, in accordance with the detailed instructions provided in the working paper “Merger Simulation with Nested Logit Demand: Implementation using Stata”. We’ve conducted an example of merger simulation between two leading firms, using actual data on PC Brazilian market. That merger process has been carried out using Stata with mergersim package commands. Built-in features within this econometric routine outline the steps underlying a merger simulation, starting with the specification and estimation of the demand system, for which an aggregated nested logit with two levels of nests has been used, followed by the specification of the competition model (Bertrand-Nash behavior) and, by default, assumes that marginal costs are constant. The results have provided for evidence on the reach of merger’s unilateral and coordinated effects on PC Brazilian market (by computing price, market shares, consumer surplus, Herfindahl-Hirschman, C4 and C8 ratio’s changes). They have also provided more information on competitive conditions on that industry (by computing the price elasticities of demand, markups etc). There were indications that PC Brazilian market coud be considerated as moderately concentrated, but a highly competitive environment. Even though with 60% market share among the 4 largest Brazilian companies in the sector, it has been showing significant changes in market power among those companies in the last few yearsThis paper proposes to implement a merger simulation model, in order to evaluate the impact of unilateral and coordinated effects − resulting from that merger − on a particular industry of Brazilian economy, as well as providing indicative information on the competitive structure prevailing on that industry. Therefore, we’ve applied a merger simulation model which was developed by Björnerstedt and Verboven. We’ve chose it because of his handy econometric routine (developed in Stata, known as "mergersim package"), for providing procedures and results that can be replicated and tested and its demand and supply assumptions are clearly laid out (explicit assumptions). We’ve picked PC Brazilian market to develop our analysis, because of the availability of data in reasonable detail about that industry and it is dynamic oligopolistic industry that reported the occurrence of merger and acquisitions cases. We have committed a significant part of this paper to describe and performing Björnerstedt and Verboven’s method, in accordance with the detailed instructions provided in the working paper “Merger Simulation with Nested Logit Demand: Implementation using Stata”. We’ve conducted an example of merger simulation between two leading firms, using actual data on PC Brazilian market. That merger process has been carried out using Stata with mergersim package commands. Built-in features within this econometric routine outline the steps underlying a merger simulation, starting with the specification and estimation of the demand system, for which an aggregated nested logit with two levels of nests has been used, followed by the specification of the competition model (Bertrand-Nash behavior) and, by default, assumes that marginal costs are constant. The results have provided for evidence on the reach of merger’s unilateral and coordinated effects on PC Brazilian market (by computing price, market shares, consumer surplus, Herfindahl-Hirschman, C4 and C8 ratio’s changes). They have also provided more information on competitive conditions on that industry (by computing the price elasticities of demand, markups etc). There were indications that PC Brazilian market coud be considerated as moderately concentrated, but a highly competitive environment. Even though with 60% market share among the 4 largest Brazilian companies in the sector, it has been showing significant changes in market power among those companies in the last few years
Language: Português
Appears in Collections:Mestrado Profissional em Economia

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
Fabian Gonzalo Fierro Cornejo_Trabalho.pdfTEXTO COMPLETO1.88 MBAdobe PDFThumbnail
View/Open

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.