Impactos do Programa Bolsa Família no Crédito
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2024
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Durante décadas, vem sendo crescente o interesse em entender os impactos das transferências de rendas regionais como parte das políticas públicas que visam à diminuição da pobreza. Neste contexto, a presente dissertação analisou o impacto das transferências de renda por meio do Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) no Brasil, no nível municipal, sobre o mercado de crédito de cada município brasileiro, no período de janeiro de 2007 até dezembro de 2011. Destaca-se que, em 2009, as regras para receber essas transferências sofreram mudanças, o que afetou a vida da população que já recebia determinado benefício. Assim sendo, o objetivo deste estudo foi identificar o impacto no crédito dada a essa alteração da regra no cálculo de cotas do Programa Bolsa Família e comparar como teria sido a distribuição das cotas caso essa regra não tivesse sido alterada. Para entender o impacto no crédito e explorar a variação que a alteração de regras no programa causou ao mercado de crédito dos municípios, foi utilizado o método Difference-in-Differences (DID). Para capturar o efeito no mercado de crédito, foram utilizadas as variáveis disponíveis na base Estatística Bancária Mensal (ESTBAN), por município, e os dados municipais coletados a partir da base da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) e do Censo Demográfico. Ao analisar o impacto das transferências de renda por meio da alteração do cálculo das cotas do PBF, foi possível constatar que a alteração das regras das cotas do Programa Bolsa Família, teve um impacto positivo de 1,7% nos municípios que, por sua vez, tiveram uma alteração maior das suas cotas no período analisado. Desta forma, este estudo contribuiu com o Mercado, ao concluir que existe um impacto no crédito causado pela transferência de renda e essa evidência é condizente com os efeitos multiplicativos da renda na economia local, gerados pela transferência de renda. Ademais, o presente estudo também contribuiu com a Academia, ao ampliar a literatura sobre os multiplicadores, que aponta que os efeitos da transferência de renda do governo para as famílias podem ter um impacto maior se a propensão ao consumo dos beneficiários for maior que a propensão à poupança, como é o caso dos participantes do PBF. Assim sendo, o impacto positivo no crédito, mesmo sendo pequeno, afeta não só as famílias que recebem o benefício como também a economia local dos municípios.
For decades, there has been growing interest in understanding the impacts of regional income transfers as part of public policies aimed at reducing poverty. However, despite important theoretical issues, there is a limited amount of applied research that quantifies the impact of regional transfers on local economies. In this context, this work analyzed the impact of income transfers through the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) in Brazil, at the municipal level, on the credit market of each municipality, from January 2007 to December 2011. Highlights- In 2009, the rules for receiving these transfers underwent changes, which affected the lives of the population who had already received a certain benefit. Therefore, the objective of this study was identify the impact on credit given to this change in the rule in calculating quotas for the Bolsa Família Program and compare what the distribution of quotas would have been like if this rule had not been changed. To understand the impact on credit and explore the variation that the change in rules in the program caused to the municipalities' credit market, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method was used. To capture the effect on the credit market, we used the variables available in the Estatística Bancária Mensal database (ESTBAN), by municipality, and municipal data collected from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) database and the Demographic Census. When analyzing the impact of income transfers through the change in the calculation of PBF quotas, it was possible to verify that the change in the rules of the Programa Bolsa Família quotas had a positive impact of 1.7% in the municipalities that had a greater change of their quotas in the period analyzed. In this way, this study contributed to the Market by concluding that there is an impact on credit caused by income transfer and this evidence is consistent with the multiplicative effects of income on the local economy, generated by income transfer. Furthermore, the present study also contributed to the Academy, by expanding the literature on multipliers, which points out that the effects of government income transfers to families can have a greater impact if the beneficiaries' propensity to consume is greater than their propensity to save, as is the case of participants in the PBF. Therefore, the positive impact on credit, even though it is small, affects not only the families that receive the benefit but also the local economy of the municipalities.
For decades, there has been growing interest in understanding the impacts of regional income transfers as part of public policies aimed at reducing poverty. However, despite important theoretical issues, there is a limited amount of applied research that quantifies the impact of regional transfers on local economies. In this context, this work analyzed the impact of income transfers through the Programa Bolsa Família (PBF) in Brazil, at the municipal level, on the credit market of each municipality, from January 2007 to December 2011. Highlights- In 2009, the rules for receiving these transfers underwent changes, which affected the lives of the population who had already received a certain benefit. Therefore, the objective of this study was identify the impact on credit given to this change in the rule in calculating quotas for the Bolsa Família Program and compare what the distribution of quotas would have been like if this rule had not been changed. To understand the impact on credit and explore the variation that the change in rules in the program caused to the municipalities' credit market, the Difference-in-Differences (DID) method was used. To capture the effect on the credit market, we used the variables available in the Estatística Bancária Mensal database (ESTBAN), by municipality, and municipal data collected from the Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (PNAD) database and the Demographic Census. When analyzing the impact of income transfers through the change in the calculation of PBF quotas, it was possible to verify that the change in the rules of the Programa Bolsa Família quotas had a positive impact of 1.7% in the municipalities that had a greater change of their quotas in the period analyzed. In this way, this study contributed to the Market by concluding that there is an impact on credit caused by income transfer and this evidence is consistent with the multiplicative effects of income on the local economy, generated by income transfer. Furthermore, the present study also contributed to the Academy, by expanding the literature on multipliers, which points out that the effects of government income transfers to families can have a greater impact if the beneficiaries' propensity to consume is greater than their propensity to save, as is the case of participants in the PBF. Therefore, the positive impact on credit, even though it is small, affects not only the families that receive the benefit but also the local economy of the municipalities.
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CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA::ECONOMIA DO BEM-ESTAR SOCIAL::ECONOMIA DOS PROGRAMAS DE BEM-ESTAR SOCIAL