Perspectivas para a inflação em diferentes regimes de expectativas no Brasil
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Orientador
Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato
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Tipo de documento
Data
2022
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A economia brasileira tem experienciado mudanças cruciais no processo inflacionário
desde que o sistema de metas para a inflação foi anunciado em 1999. O corrente estudo
avaliou os diferentes períodos associados a essas mudanças através do arcabouço teórico da
Curva de Phillips, de maneira a compreender o impacto dos diferentes regimes de ancoragem
das expectativas e da persistência da inflação sobre o cenário prospectivo da inflação
brasileira. Dessa forma, com base na estrutura de análise proposta por Hooper, Mishkin e Sufi (2019), o estudo encontrou que magnitude dos coeficientes da Curva de Phillips parece ter reduzido em relação às estimativas em períodos anteriores para a economia brasileira e que pode-se observar uma mudança de regime com o processo recente de desancoragem de
expectativas com base nas métricas observadas por Vereda et. al. (2021), o que em outros
períodos esteve associado a um aumento do coeficiente de inércia inflacionária.
Since the inflation targeting system has been announced in 1999, the Brazilian economy has experienced crucial changes in the inflationary process. The current study evaluated the different periods associated with these changes through the theoretical framework of the Phillips Curve, in order to understand the impact of the different anchoring regimes of expectations and the persistence of inflation on the prospective scenario of Brazilian inflation. Thus, based on the framework of analysis proposed by Hooper, Mishkin and Sufi (2019), the study found that the magnitude of the Phillips Curve coefficients seems to have reduced if compared to estimates in previous studies for the Brazilian economy and that is possible to observe a regime change with the recent process of de-anchoring expectations based on the metrics observed by Vereda et. al. (2021), which in other periods was associated with an increase in the inflationary inertia coefficient.
Since the inflation targeting system has been announced in 1999, the Brazilian economy has experienced crucial changes in the inflationary process. The current study evaluated the different periods associated with these changes through the theoretical framework of the Phillips Curve, in order to understand the impact of the different anchoring regimes of expectations and the persistence of inflation on the prospective scenario of Brazilian inflation. Thus, based on the framework of analysis proposed by Hooper, Mishkin and Sufi (2019), the study found that the magnitude of the Phillips Curve coefficients seems to have reduced if compared to estimates in previous studies for the Brazilian economy and that is possible to observe a regime change with the recent process of de-anchoring expectations based on the metrics observed by Vereda et. al. (2021), which in other periods was associated with an increase in the inflationary inertia coefficient.
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pt
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Membros da banca
Bortoluzzo, Adriana Bruscato
Silva, Miguel Maria Charters de Oliveira Bandeira da
Vartanian, Pedro Raffy
Área do Conhecimento CNPQ
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA
CIENCIAS SOCIAIS APLICADAS::ECONOMIA