A heterogeneidade inflacionária na zona do euro: uma abordagem da curva de Phillips com informações rígidas
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2023
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Ao longo das últimas décadas, o mundo desenvolvido foi impactado por diversos choques que produziram
recessões que se equiparam à Grande Depressão de 1929 destacam-se a Crise Financeira de 2008, O Colapso
da Dívida Europeia (2013) e a Crise da Pandemia do COVID-19 (2020). Como substrato das adversidades
enfrentadas, Políticas Monetárias Não Convencionais (PMNC) foram implementadas pelos formadores de
política econômica de diversos países tendo como princípio de reforçar o comprometimento das instituições
com a estabilidade da atividade econômica e com a manutenção do nível de preços em patamares desejados.
Todavia o que se foi observado em diversas regiões econômicas que implementaram tais políticas levantaram
grandes questionamentos teóricos dentro da Política Macroeconômica Contemporânea, mais especificamente
sobre os arcabouços da Curva de Phillips e as relações existentes que nos auxiliavam a compreender os
determinantes que regiam a dinâmica inflacionária. Durante o mesmo período, o Mundo em que vivemos
experenciou mudanças abruptas nos pilares das estruturas informacionais que pavimentam o comportamento
de tomada de decisão de todos os agentes econômicos, notáveis exemplos são o advento/popularização da
Internet e a maior acessibilidade a tecnologias ligadas ao consumo de informações pelos indivíduos e
instituições. Neste trabalho acadêmico busco investigar se as diferenças entre as características
estruturais/contextuais referentes aos aspectos informacionais dos países da Zona do Euro nos auxiliam a
melhor compreender a heterogeneidade dos efeitos econômicos produzidos pelas PMNC implementadas pelo
BCE nos últimos anos. Possíveis determinantes que explicam estas assimetrias já foram abordados no estudo
de Burriel e Galesi (2016) onde eles careceram de considerar na análise a relevância da Rigidez Informacional
dos Agentes Econômicos, que será o ponto focal deste trabalho. Este artigo se encontra dividido em cinco
seções; Introduziremos o Histórico do Arcabouço Teórico Inflacionário e as diferentes perspectivas analíticas
utilizadas pelos economistas ao longo do tempo (i); Segundamente, realizarei Revisão de Literatura referente
as formulações da Curva de Phillips Neokeynesiana e apresentar os pontos teóricos de divergência e
convergência com do Modelo de Informações Rígidas da Curva de Phillips de Mankiw e Reis (2002) (ii);
Conseguinte destrincharei a Abordagem informacional proposta, pois esta será responsável por ditar, conduzir
e sustentar toda perspectiva teórica e empírica deste trabalho acadêmico (iii); Posteriormente, sob as lentes do
modelo proposto, buscaremos estimar o parâmetro (λ) referente a taxa de frequência dos ajuste realizados em
preços pelos agentes econômicos. Nesta análise será utilizado dados trimestrais de Inflação, PIB e suas
respectivas expectativas intertemporais de 1996Q1 até 2019Q4 de 8 países da Zona do Euro, caso os
parâmetros estimados se mostrem significantes e heterogêneos entre os objetos de investigação poderemos
complementar a literatura já existente advogando que uma parcela da heterogeneidade dos efeitos observados
também pode ser explicada pelas diferenças entre a frequência de ajuste realizados em seu nível de preços.
Over the past decades, the developed world has been impacted by several shocks that have produced recessions on a par with the Great Depression of 1929, notably the Financial Crisis of 2008, The European Debt Collapse (2013), and the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis (2020). As a substratum of the adversities faced, Unconventional Monetary Policies (UMP) were implemented by the economic policy makers of several countries with the principle of reinforcing the commitment of institutions to the stability of economic activity and the maintenance of the price level at desired levels. However, what was observed in several economic regions that implemented such policies raised major theoretical questions within Contemporary Macroeconomic Policy, more specifically about the Phillips Curve framework and the existing relations that helped us understand the determinants governing inflationary dynamics. During the same period, the world we live in has experienced abrupt changes in the pillars of the informational structures that pave the way for the decision-making behavior of all economic agents, notable examples of which are the advent/popularization of the Internet and the greater accessibility of technologies linked to the consumption of information by individuals and institutions. In this academic work I seek to investigate whether the differences between the structural/contextual characteristics concerning the informational aspects of the Eurozone countries help us to better understand the heterogeneity of the economic effects produced by the UMP’s implemented by the ECB in recent years. Possible determinants that explain these asymmetries have already been addressed in the study by Burriel and Galesi (2016) where they lacked to consider in the analysis the relevance of the Informational Rigidity of Economic Agents, which will be the focal point of this paper. This article is divided into five sections; We will introduce the History of the Inflationary Theoretical Framework and the different analytical perspectives used by economists over time (i); Secondly, I will conduct a Literature Review regarding the formulations of the Neokeynesian Phillips Curve and present the theoretical points of divergence and convergence with the Mankiw and Reis (2002) Phillips Curve Model of Rigid Information (ii); Subsequently, under the lens of the proposed model, we will seek to estimate the parameter (λ) referring to the frequency rate of adjustments made in prices by economic agents. In this analysis we will use quarterly Inflation, GDP and their respective expectations data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 of 8 Eurozone countries, in case the estimated parameters prove to be significant and heterogeneous between the objects of investigation we will be able to complement the existing literature by advocating that a portion of the heterogeneity of the observed effects can also be explained by differences between the frequency of adjustment performed in their price level.
Over the past decades, the developed world has been impacted by several shocks that have produced recessions on a par with the Great Depression of 1929, notably the Financial Crisis of 2008, The European Debt Collapse (2013), and the COVID-19 Pandemic Crisis (2020). As a substratum of the adversities faced, Unconventional Monetary Policies (UMP) were implemented by the economic policy makers of several countries with the principle of reinforcing the commitment of institutions to the stability of economic activity and the maintenance of the price level at desired levels. However, what was observed in several economic regions that implemented such policies raised major theoretical questions within Contemporary Macroeconomic Policy, more specifically about the Phillips Curve framework and the existing relations that helped us understand the determinants governing inflationary dynamics. During the same period, the world we live in has experienced abrupt changes in the pillars of the informational structures that pave the way for the decision-making behavior of all economic agents, notable examples of which are the advent/popularization of the Internet and the greater accessibility of technologies linked to the consumption of information by individuals and institutions. In this academic work I seek to investigate whether the differences between the structural/contextual characteristics concerning the informational aspects of the Eurozone countries help us to better understand the heterogeneity of the economic effects produced by the UMP’s implemented by the ECB in recent years. Possible determinants that explain these asymmetries have already been addressed in the study by Burriel and Galesi (2016) where they lacked to consider in the analysis the relevance of the Informational Rigidity of Economic Agents, which will be the focal point of this paper. This article is divided into five sections; We will introduce the History of the Inflationary Theoretical Framework and the different analytical perspectives used by economists over time (i); Secondly, I will conduct a Literature Review regarding the formulations of the Neokeynesian Phillips Curve and present the theoretical points of divergence and convergence with the Mankiw and Reis (2002) Phillips Curve Model of Rigid Information (ii); Subsequently, under the lens of the proposed model, we will seek to estimate the parameter (λ) referring to the frequency rate of adjustments made in prices by economic agents. In this analysis we will use quarterly Inflation, GDP and their respective expectations data from 1996Q1 to 2019Q4 of 8 Eurozone countries, in case the estimated parameters prove to be significant and heterogeneous between the objects of investigation we will be able to complement the existing literature by advocating that a portion of the heterogeneity of the observed effects can also be explained by differences between the frequency of adjustment performed in their price level.
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