Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: https://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/4061
Type: Artigo Científico
Title: Tracking Epidemics With Google Flu Trends Data and a State-Space SEIR Model
Author: Dukic, Vanja
Lopes, Hedibert Freitas
Polson, Nicholas G.
Publication Date: 2012
Abstract: In this article, we use Google Flu Trends data together with a sequential surveillance model based on state-space methodology to track the evolution of an epidemic process over time. We embed a classical mathematical epidemiology model [a susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) model] within the state-space framework, thereby extending the SEIR dynamics to allow changes through time. The implementation of this model is based on a particle filtering algorithm, which learns about the epidemic process sequentially through time and provides updated estimated odds of a pandemic with each new surveillance data point. We show how our approach, in combination with sequential Bayes factors, can serve as an online diagnostic tool for influenza pandemic. We take a close look at the Google Flu Trends data describing the spread of flu in the United States during 2003—2009 and in nine separate U.S. states chosen to represent a wide range of health care and emergency system strengths and weaknesses. This article has online supplementary materials.
Keywords (english terms): Flu
Google correlate
Google searches
Google trends
H1N1
Infectious Diseases
Influenza
IP surveilance
Nowcasting
Online surveillance
Particle filtering
Language: Inglês
CNPq Area: Ciências Sociais Aplicadas
URI: https://www.jstor.org/stable/23427343
Copyright: O INSPER E ESTE REPOSITÓRIO NÃO DETÊM OS DIREITOS DE USO E REPRODUÇÃO DOS CONTEÚDOS AQUI REGISTRADOS. É RESPONSABILIDADE DOS USUÁRIOS INDIVIDUAIS VERIFICAR OS USOS PERMITIDOS NA FONTE ORIGINAL, RESPEITANDO-SE OS DIREITOS DE AUTOR OU EDITOR.
Appears in Collections:Coleção de Artigos Científicos

Files in This Item:
File Description SizeFormat 
R_Artigo_2012_Tracking Epidemics With Google_TC.pdfR_Artigo_2012_Tracking Epidemics With Google_TC3.81 MBAdobe PDFView/Open

Items in DSpace are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.