Coleção de Artigos em Andamento [Working Papers]
URI permanente para esta coleçãohttps://repositorio.insper.edu.br/handle/11224/3233
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15 resultados
Resultados da Pesquisa
Working Paper Under pressure: women's leadership during the COVID-19 crisis(2021) Bruce, Raphael; Cavgias, Alexsandros; Meloni, Luis; Remígio, MárioIn this paper, we study the effect of women's public leadership in times of crisis. More specifically, we use a regression discontinuity design in close mayoral races between male and female candidates to understand the impact of having a woman as a mayor during the COVID-19 pandemic in Brazil. We provide evidence that municipalities under female leadership had fewer deaths and hospitalizations per 100 thousand inhabitants and enforced more non-pharmaceutical interventions (e.g., mask usage and prohibition of gatherings). We also show that these results are not due to measures taken before the pandemic or other observable mayoral characteristics such as education or political preferences. Finally, we provide evidence that these effects are stronger in municipalities where Brazil's far-right president, who publicly disavowed the importance of non-pharmaceutical interventions, had a higher vote share in the 2018 election. Overall, our findings provide credible causal evidence that female leaders outperformed male ones when dealing with a global policy issue. Moreover, our results also showcase the role local leaders can play in counteracting bad policies implemented by populist leaders at the national level.Working Paper Political competition and the provision of early childhood education and care: evidence from Brazil(2022) Portella, Alysson Lorenzon; Tebaldi, RaquelThe objective of this paper is to investigate whether higher political competition induces the expansion of public early childhood education and care (ECEC) services using Brazil as a case study. Public ECEC services are provided mainly by Brazilian municipalities and although enrolment for children aged 0 to 3 is not mandatory, it has increased continuously in the last two decades, with large heterogeneity across municipalities. In addition, electoral rules in Brazil establishes a dual-ballot system only for municipalities with more than 200,000 registered voters. This provides an exogenous variation in political competition that enables us to evaluate its impact on ECEC provision through a regression discontinuity design. We find that average estimated municipal crèche net enrolment rates are around 3 percentage points larger in municipalities with the dual-ballot. ECEC expenditure levels are also higher in these municipalities.Working Paper Public investment and fiscal crisis in Brazil: finding culprits and solutions(2021) MARCO ANTONIO CESAR BONOMO; Frischtak, Cláudio R.; PAULO SERGIO OLIVEIRA RIBEIROWe investigate the relation between existing fiscal rules and investments in the context of a fiscal crisis in Brazil. We analyze existing fiscal rules at national and subnational levels, their enforcement, and proposed alternatives. Using narrative analysis, case studies, interviews, empirical estimation, and model simulations, we conclude that public investment is not closely related to fiscal rules in Brazil but is mainly determined by fiscal conditions both at national and subnational (state) levels. It is the steady increase of personnel expenditures in real terms that underlies the fiscal deterioration of the last decade, despite the existence of fiscal rules devised to prevent it. We argue that a constitutional rule limiting subnationals’ personnel expenditures to 50 percent of net revenues, triggering adjustment measures when reaching 47.5 percent, would be an effective instrument for subnational fiscal management, opening fiscal space for increasing investments. At the national level, despite the existence of several fiscal rules, the only effective fiscal anchor is the primary expenditure ceiling introduced in 2016, which has successfully curbed expenditures, including those of the judiciary and legislature.Working Paper The effects of public sector employment on household savings and labor supply(2021) MARCELO RODRIGUES DOS SANTOS; Bettoni, Luis G.In many countries the structure of wages and the labor law legislation are completely different for public and private sector employees. In this paper, we develop a general equilibrium overlapping generations model to study the effect of such differences on household savings and labor supply. To conduct our analysis, first we use microdata from two Brazilian household surveys to document that civil servants save and work significantly less than their counterparts in the private sector. Second, we use matched employer-employee micro-data from Brazil (RAIS) to document differences between the two sectors in terms of wage and unemployment risk. Then, we calibrate the model to be consistent with micro and macro evidence for Brazil. Our counterfactual exercises show that differences in wages characteristics and labor law legislation accounts for nearly 70\% of the gap in savings between civil servants and private sector workers, and 57\% of the gap in labor supply. In addition, we find that eliminating those differences can produce sizeable increase on aggregate savings, employment and welfare.Working Paper Desigualdade Racial e de Gênero nas Eleições Municipais no Brasil(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelEste trabalho contribui com a literatura que procura estimar os desequilíbrios raciais e de gênero na representação política municipal brasileira. Para isso, utilizamos dados das eleições de prefeitos e vereadores de 2016 e 2020 com o intuito de investigar em que medida mulheres negras, homens negros e mulheres brancas estão sub-representados em relação aos homens brancos em nosso sistema político local. Nossa análise revela altos níveis de desequilíbrios, em especial na dimensão de gênero. Para prefeitos, os desequilíbrios são altos quando consideramos tanto as candidaturas quanto os que foram eleitos. No caso dos vereadores, o desequilíbrio é maior entre os eleitos. Adicionalmente, verificamos que havia uma alta desigualdade no financiamento de campanhas em favor de homens brancos em 2016, que se reverte em favor das mulheres em 2020. Contudo, essa mudança não foi capaz de alterar os baixos níveis de representação feminina na política local.Working Paper Steering a green, health , and inclusive recovery through transport(2021) Fried, Travis; Welle, Benjamin; Avelleda, SergioHighlights ▪ The pandemic and resulting economic fallout have upended means of mobility, such as public transport and air travel. ▪ This report evaluates how countries, cities, and companies have allocated funds, directed policies, or launched actions that impact the transport sector. It provides evidence of how these interventions could shape long-term economic recovery that addresses climate, health, safety, and equity goals. ▪ This study analyzes roughly US$298 billion in global stimulus funds committed to the transport sector between March 2020 and February 2021. Of these funds, roughly 44 percent have gone to subsectors with positive implications for climate and sustainability goals. ▪ We are at a critical moment to steer national investments, local and country-level regulations, and private-sector commitments toward sustainable transport. ▪ This paper identifies several intersectional opportunities and explores five key opportunities and action areas for transport decarbonization and public-private participation for countries, cities, and companies. These areas are public transport, walking and bicycling, vehicle electrification, rail, and research and development (R&D). Actions in these areas can help decarbonize transport while creating jobs, increasing equity, improving road safety, and reducing air pollution.Working Paper Desigualdade Racial nas Eleições Brasileiras(2022) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Portella, Alysson; Tavares, RafaelWorking Paper Racial Inequality in Health Care During a Pandemic(2020) Bruce, Raphael; SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Meloni, LuisWorking Paper Descriptive Representation in Politics: A Measurement Proposal and Application for Brazil(2023) SERGIO PINHEIRO FIRPO; França, Michael; Pereira, Leila; Tavares, RafaelWorking Paper Panorama da Cobertura Vacinal do Brasil, 2020(2021) LETICIA FARIA DE CARVALHO NUNESA vacinação foi eleita sucessivamente uma das dez maiores conquistas da saúde pública no último século, sendo responsável por uma incrível redução da morbidade e mortalidade por doenças infecciosas em todo o mundo (CDC 1999, 2011). Estimativas revelam que vacinas administradas entre 2000 e 2030 em países de baixa e média renda podem prevenir 69 milhões de mortes, principalmente entre crianças de até 5 anos (Li et al. 2021). E, nesse último ano, a pandemia de COVID-19 reforçou o papel revolucionário da vacina na saúde global, que se tornou o principal instrumento para que o atual cenário seja superado. O presente relatório acompanha a evolução da cobertura vacinal no Brasil nos últimos anos e fornece um panorama da situação em 2020, primeiro ano da pandemia, para nove imunobiológicos presentes no Calendário Nacional de Vacinação: poliomielite, tríplice viral (primeira dose), BCG, pentavalente, hepatite B (em crianças até 30 dias), hepatite A, pneumocócica, meningocócica C e rotavírus humano. O objetivo é contribuir para o monitoramento e a análise das políticas de vacinação no país, de forma a identificar avanços e retrocessos em diferentes níveis geográficos, e estimular o debate sobre problemas e possíveis soluções. Documentar, monitorar e avaliar as políticas de saúde é essencial para garantir que elas entreguem o que se propõem à sociedade.